第三季度经济再度下行，微弱企稳趋势日渐凸显
要点
尽管9月单月数据有所回升，但是边际好转不足以对冲前两个月的低迷徘徊，三季度数据反映经济增长进一步放缓。不过，在“逆周期”政策对冲下，部分细节数据，例如工业生产、消费及投资等显示微弱企稳的趋势日渐明显。目前看，虽然外部政治、经济等多方面仍有不定，但是国内支撑复苏的因素与政策较多，多管齐下，四季度经济或存在下行空间，但降幅有限。
三季度gdp当季同比增长6%，再创历史新低。由此拖累下，前三季度gdp增速再度下滑0.1个百分点至6.2%，与去年同期比下降0.5个百分点。从“三驾马车”看，消费支出与资本形成对gdp的拉动作用不变，与上半年一致分别是3.8%与1.2%，而净出口对gdp的贡献则下行0.1个百分点至1.2%。与去年同期比，消费支出与资本形成均呈现较大幅度的下行，分别下降1.4与1.2个百分点，而衰退式顺差虽然不如前季，但仍推动着净出口较去年同期上行2.2个百分点。
考虑到去年四季度基期较低等诸多当前政策对冲，我们相对乐观，预计全年gdp增长将维持在6 %以上，“破6”可能性不大。具体看：
工业生产方面，采矿业与制造业生产回升是9月工业增加值反弹的主要原因。其中，采矿业生产提速并非由需求端带动，根据微观调研，我们认为主要与秋冬季限产，企业提前备货，以及国内原油等能源生产在今年9月保持高位有关。而受贸易环境边际好转，美方发布排除清单等影响，国内部分制造业生产相对回温。具体子行业看，带动制造业生产增长上行的主要出口关联度较高的行业，包括计算机电子设备、专用设备、通用设备等制造业。由此推动下，前三季度工业生产同比增长5.6%，增速与1-8月持平，较上半年下行0.4个百分点，较去年同期下降0.8个百分点。
往后看，工业生产仍存在下行压力，处于补库存与去库存的交替阶段，但无需过度担忧。考虑到中美贸易谈判已取得阶段性成果、国内“逆周期”政策调节持续加力、投资端仍起做压舱石的作用以及冬季限产禁止“一刀切”等，四季度工业生产的负面因素有限。综上，我们预计全年工业增加值增速处于5.4-5.5%区间内。
固定资产投资方面，单月投资持续负增长，但是降幅持续收窄。前三季度增速仍延续上半年以来的下行趋势，较1-8月下行0.1个百分点至5.4%，较上半年增速下降0.4个百分点，但与去年同期持平。
预计接下来，在高端制造业投资受政策扶植、地方基建投入回温以及房地产开发保持韧性的综合作用下，四季度的固定资产投资会维持稳定增长。不过，长期内基建与地产的托底作用不可持续，前者在于即使专项债发力，受制于土地转让收入大幅下滑与减税降费等影响，地方财政紧张趋势不变，而后者在“房住不炒”等政策约束下，即使完成去库存的任务，新一轮房地产投资也难以出现过往的高增长情景。因此在未来，制造业投资才是关键，而这又取决于国内经济转型的步伐、中央与地方政府政策指引的方向以及资本市场的支持力度，特别是股权投资形式的资本投入。
国内消费方面，受汽车零售额降速收窄的影响，9月消费增速略有回升，然而汽车消费回升主要受节假日与低基数所推动，实际居民汽车需求仍处低位。如上期所述，若不考虑通胀的对冲，三季度消费对gdp贡献是进一步减弱的。在9月消费增速回升的作用下，前三季度社零同比增速与1-8月持平于8.2%，但仍较上半年增速下行0.2个百分点。
整体看，国内消费低迷趋势不变，在居民可支配收入增长逐季放缓等因素抑制下，消费复苏仍不可预期。预计第四季度消费低迷的趋势不变，究其本质在于今年居民收入增长不足，居民边际消费倾向较难提高。但是在通胀的对冲和前期消费政策将陆续在四季度内落地等影响，消费对gdp的拖累有限，较难出现大幅度下行情况。
境外需求方面，9月进出口贸易持续负增长，且降幅进一步扩大。前三季度出口同比下降0.1%，较上半年增速下滑0.2个百分点；进口降速较上半年下滑0.8个百分点至-5%。然而受进口降幅高于出口的影响，衰退式贸易顺差趋势不变，三季度新增顺差额1186亿美元，1-9月贸易顺差累计至2984亿美元，与去年同期比多增791亿美元。单月数据持续恶化，究其原因，除了全球主要经济体前景不明朗、中美贸易摩擦以及国内需求疲软等导致今年进出口持续下行的基本面因素之外，基数效应与价格因素亦“助攻”9月的再度下行。具体看，前期的中美贸易摩擦升级导致消费类出口下滑，进而拖累9月出口表现。
事实上，当前中美谈判所取得的阶段性成果仅将双方拉回今年8月之前的局面，随着向解决核心诉求的方向推进，其结局仍是未知数。然而明确的是，即使中美贸易战结束，中美关系已回不到过去的局面，竞争大于合作，贸易摩擦已扩散至金融、科技、文化和政治等领域。
受圣诞节备货等暂时性外需提升，新出口订单pmi较前月进一步上行1个百分点至48.2，但是仍处于枯荣线之下。接下来，国内经济能靠政策层的“逆周期”回调，但是全球经济下行无法做到“止跌”，若在四季度全球系统性风险加剧，会约束着国内出口增速修复，进而导致顺差收窄，拖累净出口对国内gdp的拉动。
企业融资方面，表内人民币贷款，表外非标和企业债是9月社融增速的主要支撑项。综合前三季度看，首先、人民币贷款保持较快增长，然而企业中长期贷款增长并不显著；其次、企业债，尤其是地方专项债发行力度较大；第三、表外融资下降的态势明显好转。印证了年初以来，中美贸易摩擦升级背景下，企业投资意愿低迷，有效融资需求不振的情况。预计四季度信贷、社融等金融数据可能仍将出现趋势性反弹，以确保全年经济增速保持运行在合理区间。
汇率方面，展望四季度，人民币贬值压力预计进一步减轻。首先、中美经济基本面差异正在缩小。其次、中美十年期国债利差仍保持150bps的历史高位，9月海外资本加仓人民币债券高达1100亿元，为中国资本跨境流动提供了有力平衡。第三、中美贸易谈判取得积极进展，市场对人民币汇率持续下跌的负面预期有所舒缓。
政策方面，面对着下行压力，9月至今国内“逆周期”政策调节力度不断加码，直击痛点。同时，在外部错综复杂的经济政治环境下，中国始终坚持对外开放，视其为基本国策。
结合上述的经济局面判断，从股权投资角度看，确实存在诸多挑战，但也存在着前所未有的机遇。随着国内逆周期调节持续推进，后续私募股权投资政策的不断完善与监管层的支持，长期内股权投资业可望逐步脱离“资管新规”所带来的负面影响，但是短期内，由于经济持续不景气，整体股权投资业在“募投管退”等较难取得突破，头部效应，强者恒强的情况不变。
我们建议，股权投资机构在募资端持续关注地方政府在经济转型升级的需求，同时保持与银行、保险等核心金融机构的业务沟通，待政策成熟把握合作机会；在投资端持续关注政策指引的方向，包括高技术制造业、消费升级、“进口替代”、新能源、人口老龄化等领域；在退出端关注国内资本市场多元化的推进。此外，金融业双向开放进一步扩大，跨境投融资需求所带来的机会亦不可忽视，建议进一步关注粤港澳大湾区内的金融政策变动以及相应的机会。
关于潜在风险点，我们建议对以下四方面保持关注：1）中美贸易摩擦再起；2）供给冲击对cpi的持续上行推动；3）房地产全面融资收紧导致的系统性风险；4）居民收入的增长放缓，劳动力市场景气度下行。
economy trended down in first three quarters. light of stabilization at the end of tunnel
despite the single-month resurgence in economic figures during september, the marginal improvements could not offset the dreadful numbers from the two previous months. third quarter figures indicate a further slowdown of the economy. however, with the “counter-cyclical” policy’s support, some sector’s figures such as manufacturing, consumption and investments showed a faint but increasingly clear sign of stabilization. at this point, there are uncertainties from external political and economic situations, but supportive domestic elements and policies also abound and are acting in concert. there is still room for downward trending in the fourth quarter economy but the scale could be limited.
third quarter gdp growth marked a historical low of 6% on year-on-year basis. as a result, first three quarter gdp growth slipped 0.1 of a percentage point to 6.2%, a 0.5 percentage point drop from the same time last year. among the “troika” of growth drivers, consumption and capital investment maintained their pull on gdp growth, contributing 3.8% and 1.2% respectively, in line with the first half of the year. net export’s contribution to gdp growth shrank 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.2%. compared to the same period last year, consumption and capital investment posted significant drops of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. recessionary surplus pushed net export up 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period of last year.
considering the low basis of comparison from fourth quarter of last year and the support of many current policies, we are optimistic, and estimate the whole year gdp growth will likely be above 6%. there is little chance the figure will break below 6.
on the industrial production side, the bounce back in mining and manufacturing provided the major support for the growth of september industrial value-added. between the two, the acceleration of mining production did not come from the demand side. based on our studies, we tie the growth to advance stocking up by manufacturers in anticipation of production limits in fall and winter, as well as high level of production in september in domestic crude oil sector. as a result of marginally improving trade climate and the exclusion list from us trade representative, part of domestic manufacturing showed signs of recovery. in terms of specific sectors, export-oriented sectors including computer and electronic equipment, specialized equipments, general equipments, electric machinery and apparatus led the manufacturing growth. as a result, first three quarters industrial output grew 5.6% compared to the same period last year, maintaining the same rate as the one from january to august but 0.4 of a
percentage point lower than the first half of the year and 0.8 of a percentage point lower than the same period of last year.
looking ahead, there is still downward pressure in the industrial sector, which is in a phase between de-stocking and replenishment. however, there is no need to be overly worried, considering the first phase success of the us-china trade talks, the continued counter-cyclical policy support, stabilizing effect of the investments, as well as the individual considerations under the production limit during winter, there is limited negative impact in fourth quarter industrial sector. based on the above, we estimate full year industrial value-added growth to be between 5.4 and 5.5%.
on the fixed asset investment side, we saw a decrease in fixed assets investment but the scale of the decrease is shrinking. growth in the first three quarters extended the downward trend from the first half of the year and shrank 0.1 of a percentage point to 5.4% when compared with the rate from january to august. it was also a decrease of 0.4 of a percentage point compared to the growth rate in the first half of the year, but was in line with the same period of last year.
looking ahead, high end manufacturing will have favorable policy support. local infrastructure spending is recovering and real estate development is expected to be resilient. as a result, fourth quarter fixed asset investment will maintain a steady growth pace. however, on a long term basis, the supportive effect of infrastructure and real estate investments to the economy is not sustainable. the former will be limited by the rapidly slipping income from land sales and the decrease in taxes and fees. even when there is a growth spurt in targeted debt issuance, the tight local fiscal situation will persist. the latter will be bound by the “apartments for living, not for speculation” policy. even when the de-stocking is complete, it is unlikely that we will see rapid growth in the new round of real estate investment. in the future, investments in manufacturing will be the key. this in turn will be determined by the pace of transition of the domestic economy, the directions of the policies, and the support of the capital markets. among these, the support from private equity investments are especially important.
on the domestic consumption side, we saw a small recovery in the growth rate in september thanks to the deceleration in the decrease of automobile sales. however, car sales are influenced by the holidays and a low basis of comparison. actual demand of automobiles from residents is still at a low point. as described in the previous issue, if we ignore the offsetting effect of inflation, third quarter consumption’s contribution to gdp growth is further weakening. with the recovery of consumption growth in september, first three quarters’ retail growth maintained the 8.2% rate we saw in the january to august period, but is still 0.2 percentage point lower than the first half of the year.
overall, the domestic consumption level stays low. as the residents’ disposable income growth slows from quarter to quarter, the recovery in consumption is nowhere in sight. our forecast is that the low consumption level will extend into the fourth quarter. further studies indicate that the weak resident income growth put a damper on marginal consumption tendency. however, as the offsetting effect of inflation and the implementation of previous consumption policies in the fourth quarter, consumption’s drag on gdp growth will be muted and unlikely to show a significant decline.
on the overseas demand side, september saw the export and import trade volume shrank further and on a larger scale. first three quarter export declined 0.1% compared to the same period last year and 0.2 of a percentage point lower than the growth speed in the first half of the year. import growth slipped 0.8 of a
percentage point, to -5%, compared to the first half of the year. nevertheless, as the import volume declined at a faster pace than export, recessionary surplus persisted with the third quarter surplus growing 118.6 billion us dollars and cumulative january to august surplus totaling 298.4 billion us dollars, a 79.1 billion increase compared to the same period last year. single month figures worsened. our studies indicate that aside from fundamental issues such as uncertainties with major global economies, us-china trade friction, and weak domestic demand, the basis for comparison and prices also contributed to the decline in september figures. specifically, us-china trade friction caused a decline in consumer goods exports which dragged down the september export figure.
in fact, the phase one success of us-china trade talks merely placed the two sides back to the positions before august. as the talks move toward core demands, the end results are still uncertain. what is clear is that us-china relationship will not be what it was even after the trade war is over. there will be more competition than cooperation between the two, and trade friction has expanded to capital markets, technology, culture, and the political scene.
boosted by seasonal overseas demands ahead of the holiday season, new export orders pmi rose 1 point to 48.2 compared to last month, but still on the contraction side. looking ahead, domestic economy might see some recovery from the counter cyclical policy support, but uncertainties in global economy and an increase in systemic risk in fourth quarter will limit the recovery in export, reducing the surplus as well as the positive effect of net export on domestic gdp growth.
on the private sector financing side, on-the-book renminbi loans, off-the-book non-standard debt, and corporate debt are main contributors to september private financing growth. when taken together, the first three quarters saw a). relatively rapid growth of renminbi loans despite the weakness in corporate medium- and long-term loan growth; b). robust growth in corporate debt, especially in local targeted debt issuance; c). significant improvement in the previously declining off-the-book financing. these reflect the fact that effective demand for financing was suppressed in the backdrop of the us-china trade friction and the low willingness to invest among enterprises. fourth quarter credit and financing data could still see a rebound, ensuring a healthy whole-year economic growth figure.
on the exchange rate side, the pressure for the renminbi to depreciate is expected to further lessen in the fourth quarter. first, the fundamental gap between the us and chinese economies is shrinking. second, the interest rate spread between us and china’s ten-year national debt stays at the historical high of 150bps. third, us-china trade talks is progressing positively and market expectation for renminbi depreciation is muted.
in the face of downward pressure, domestic counter-cyclical policies have been strengthened to target pain points. china maintained its open door policy which is now a basic national strategy, despite the complex external economic and political climate.
for equity investors, there are in fact many challenges, but also unprecedented opportunities. overall, with the continued progress of counter-cyclical adjustments in china, policies regarding private equity investments are being perfected and supported by the regulatory authorities. over the long term, equity investments can shrug off the negative effect of the new guidance of asset management. in the short term, equity investors are facing headwinds during its raise, investment, management, and exit during the economic downturn. the rule of the oligarchs persists with the strong staying strong.
our recommendation is that institutional equity investors pay close attention to local governments’ need for economic transition and upgrade during raises, and maintain communication with core financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies, in anticipation of opportunities as governmental policies come around to a favorable angle. on the investment side, note the directions that policies point to, which include high tech manufacturing, consumption upgrades, import substitution, new energy, and opportunities brought by the aging population. on the exit side, pay attention to the diversifying capital markets in china. in addition, as the bilateral opening up of capital markets pushes ahead, opportunities brought by cross-border investments should not be ignored. we recommend that attention be paid to the financial policy changes in the guangdong-hong kong-macau bay area and the opportunities that come with them.
as to potential risks, we advise that the following four issues be closely watched: a) potential flare-up of us-china trade tension; b) continued upward push to cpi by the supply end; c) systemic risk brought by the tightening real estate financing; and d) slowing resident income growth and deteriorating labor market.
