第三季度經濟再度下行，微弱企穩趨勢日漸凸顯
要點
儘管9月單月資料有所回升，但是邊際好轉不足以對沖前兩個月的低迷徘徊，三季度資料反映經濟增長進一步放緩。不過，在“逆週期”政策對沖下，部分細節資料，例如工業生產、消費及投資等顯示微弱企穩的趨勢日漸明顯。目前看，雖然外部政治、經濟等多方面仍有不定，但是國內支撐復蘇的因素與政策較多，多管齊下，四季度經濟或存在下行空間，但降幅有限。
三季度gdp當季同比增長6%，再創歷史新低。由此拖累下，前三季度gdp增速再度下滑0.1個百分點至6.2%，與去年同期比下降0.5個百分點。從“三駕馬車”看，消費支出與資本形成對gdp的拉動作用不變，與上半年一致分別是3.8%與1.2%，而淨出口對gdp的貢獻則下行0.1個百分點至1.2%。與去年同期比，消費支出與資本形成均呈現較大幅度的下行，分別下降1.4與1.2個百分點，而衰退式順差雖然不如前季，但仍推動著淨出口較去年同期上行2.2個百分點。
考慮到去年四季度基期較低等諸多當前政策對沖，我們相對樂觀，預計全年gdp增長將維持在6 %以上，“破6”可能性不大。具體看：
工業生產方面，採礦業與製造業生產回升是9月工業增加值反彈的主要原因。其中，採礦業生產提速並非由需求端帶動，根據微觀調研，我們認為主要與秋冬季限產，企業提前備貨，以及國內原油等能源生產在今年9月保持高位有關。而受貿易環境邊際好轉，美方發佈排除清單等影響，國內部分製造業生產相對回溫。具體子行業看，帶動製造業生產增長上行的主要出口關聯度較高的行業，包括計算機電子設備、專用設備、通用設備等製造業。由此推動下，前三季度工業生產同比增長5.6%，增速與1-8月持平，較上半年下行0.4個百分點，較去年同期下降0.8個百分點。
往後看，工業生產仍存在下行壓力，處於補庫存與去庫存的交替階段，但無需過度擔憂。考慮到中美貿易談判已取得階段性成果、國內“逆週期”政策調節持續加力、投資端仍起做壓艙石的作用以及冬季限產禁止“一刀切”等，四季度工業生產的負面因素有限。綜上，我們預計全年工業增加值增速處於5.4-5.5%區間內。
固定資產投資方面，單月投資持續負增長，但是降幅持續收窄。前三季度增速仍延續上半年以來的下行趨勢，較1-8月下行0.1個百分點至5.4%，較上半年增速下降0.4個百分點，但與去年同期持平。
預計接下來，在高端製造業投資受政策扶植、地方基建投入回溫以及房地產開發保持韌性的綜合作用下，四季度的固定資產投資會維持穩定增長。不過，長期內基建與地產的托底作用不可持續，前者在於即使專項債發力，受制於土地轉讓收入大幅下滑與減稅降費等影響，地方財政緊張趨勢不變，而後者在“房住不炒”等政策約束下，即使完成去庫存的任務，新一輪房地產投資也難以出現過往的高增長情景。因此在未來，製造業投資才是關鍵，而這又取決於國內經濟轉型的步伐、中央與地方政府政策指引的方向以及資本市場的支持力度，特別是股權投資形式的資本投入。
國內消費方面，受汽車零售額降速收窄的影響，9月消費增速略有回升，然而汽車消費回升主要受節假日與低基數所推動，實際居民汽車需求仍處低位。如上期所述，若不考慮通脹的對沖，三季度消費對gdp貢獻是進一步減弱的。在9月消費增速回升的作用下，前三季度社零同比增速與1-8月持平於8.2%，但仍較上半年增速下行0.2個百分點。
整體看，國內消費低迷趨勢不變，在居民可支配收入增長逐季放緩等因素抑制下，消費復蘇仍不可預期。預計第四季度消費低迷的趨勢不變，究其本質在於今年居民收入增長不足，居民邊際消費傾向較難提高。但是在通脹的對沖和前期消費政策將陸續在四季度內落地等影響，消費對gdp的拖累有限，較難出現大幅度下行情況。
境外需求方面，9月進出口貿易持續負增長，且降幅進一步擴大。前三季度出口同比下降0.1%，較上半年增速下滑0.2個百分點；進口降速較上半年下滑0.8個百分點至-5%。然而受進口降幅高於出口的影響，衰退式貿易順差趨勢不變，三季度新增順差額1186億美元，1-9月貿易順差累計至2984億美元，與去年同期比多增791億美元。單月資料持續惡化，究其原因，除了全球主要經濟體前景不明朗、中美貿易摩擦以及國內需求疲軟等導致今年進出口持續下行的基本面因素之外，基數效應與價格因素亦“助攻”9月的再度下行。具體看，前期的中美貿易摩擦升級導致消費類出口下滑，進而拖累9月出口表現。
事實上，當前中美談判所取得的階段性成果僅將雙方拉回今年8月之前的局面，隨著向解決核心訴求的方向推進，其結局仍是未知數。然而明確的是，即使中美貿易戰結束，中美關係已回不到過去的局面，競爭大於合作，貿易摩擦已擴散至金融、科技、文化和政治等領域。
受耶誕節備貨等暫時性外需提升，新出口訂單pmi較前月進一步上行1個百分點至48.2，但是仍處於枯榮線之下。接下來，國內經濟能靠政策層的“逆週期”回檔，但是全球經濟下行無法做到“止跌”，若在四季度全球系統性風險加劇，會約束著國內出口增速修復，進而導致順差收窄，拖累淨出口對國內gdp的拉動。
企業融資方面，表內人民幣貸款，表外非標和企業債是9月社融增速的主要支撐項。綜合前三季度看，首先、人民幣貸款保持較快增長，然而企業中長期貸款增長並不顯著；其次、企業債，尤其是地方專項債發行力度較大；第三、表外融資下降的態勢明顯好轉。印證了年初以來，中美貿易摩擦升級背景下，企業投資意願低迷，有效融資需求不振的情況。預計四季度信貸、社融等金融資料可能仍將出現趨勢性反彈，以確保全年經濟增速保持運行在合理區間。
匯率方面，展望四季度，人民幣貶值壓力預計進一步減輕。首先、中美經濟基本面差異正在縮小。其次、中美十年期國債利差仍保持150bps的歷史高位，9月海外資本加倉人民幣債券高達1100億元，為中國資本跨境流動提供了有力平衡。第三、中美貿易談判取得積極進展，市場對人民幣匯率持續下跌的負面預期有所舒緩。
政策方面，面對著下行壓力，9月至今國內“逆週期”政策調節力度不斷加碼，直擊痛點。同時，在外部錯綜複雜的經濟政治環境下，中國始終堅持對外開放，視其為基本國策。
結合上述的經濟局面判斷，從股權投資角度看，確實存在諸多挑戰，但也存在著前所未有的機遇。隨著國內逆週期調節持續推進，後續私募股權投資政策的不斷完善與監管層的支持，長期內股權投資業可望逐步脫離“資管新規”所帶來的負面影響，但是短期內，由於經濟持續不景氣，整體股權投資業在“募投管退”等較難取得突破，頭部效應，強者恒強的情況不變。
我們建議，股權投資機構在募資端持續關注地方政府在經濟轉型升級的需求，同時保持與銀行、保險等核心金融機構的業務溝通，待政策成熟把握合作機會；在投資端持續關注政策指引的方向，包括高技術製造業、消費升級、“進口替代”、新能源、人口老齡化等領域；在退出端關注國內資本市場多元化的推進。此外，金融業雙向開放進一步擴大，跨境投融資需求所帶來的機會亦不可忽視，建議進一步關注粵港澳大灣區內的金融政策變動以及相應的機會。
關於潛在風險點，我們建議對以下四方面保持關注：1）中美貿易摩擦再起；2）供給衝擊對cpi的持續上行推動；3）房地產全面融資收緊導致的系統性風險；4）居民收入的增長放緩，勞動力市場景氣度下行。
economy trended down in first three quarters. light of stabilization at the end of tunnel
despite the single-month resurgence in economic figures during september, the marginal improvements could not offset the dreadful numbers from the two previous months. third quarter figures indicate a further slowdown of the economy. however, with the “counter-cyclical” policy’s support, some sector’s figures such as manufacturing, consumption and investments showed a faint but increasingly clear sign of stabilization. at this point, there are uncertainties from external political and economic situations, but supportive domestic elements and policies also abound and are acting in concert. there is still room for downward trending in the fourth quarter economy but the scale could be limited.
third quarter gdp growth marked a historical low of 6% on year-on-year basis. as a result, first three quarter gdp growth slipped 0.1 of a percentage point to 6.2%, a 0.5 percentage point drop from the same time last year. among the “troika” of growth drivers, consumption and capital investment maintained their pull on gdp growth, contributing 3.8% and 1.2% respectively, in line with the first half of the year. net export’s contribution to gdp growth shrank 0.1 of a percentage point to 1.2%. compared to the same period last year, consumption and capital investment posted significant drops of 1.4 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. recessionary surplus pushed net export up 2.2 percentage points compared to the same period of last year.
considering the low basis of comparison from fourth quarter of last year and the support of many current policies, we are optimistic, and estimate the whole year gdp growth will likely be above 6%. there is little chance the figure will break below 6.
on the industrial production side, the bounce back in mining and manufacturing provided the major support for the growth of september industrial value-added. between the two, the acceleration of mining production did not come from the demand side. based on our studies, we tie the growth to advance stocking up by manufacturers in anticipation of production limits in fall and winter, as well as high level of production in september in domestic crude oil sector. as a result of marginally improving trade climate and the exclusion list from us trade representative, part of domestic manufacturing showed signs of recovery. in terms of specific sectors, export-oriented sectors including computer and electronic equipment, specialized equipments, general equipments, electric machinery and apparatus led the manufacturing growth. as a result, first three quarters industrial output grew 5.6% compared to the same period last year, maintaining the same rate as the one from january to august but 0.4 of a
percentage point lower than the first half of the year and 0.8 of a percentage point lower than the same period of last year.
looking ahead, there is still downward pressure in the industrial sector, which is in a phase between de-stocking and replenishment. however, there is no need to be overly worried, considering the first phase success of the us-china trade talks, the continued counter-cyclical policy support, stabilizing effect of the investments, as well as the individual considerations under the production limit during winter, there is limited negative impact in fourth quarter industrial sector. based on the above, we estimate full year industrial value-added growth to be between 5.4 and 5.5%.
on the fixed asset investment side, we saw a decrease in fixed assets investment but the scale of the decrease is shrinking. growth in the first three quarters extended the downward trend from the first half of the year and shrank 0.1 of a percentage point to 5.4% when compared with the rate from january to august. it was also a decrease of 0.4 of a percentage point compared to the growth rate in the first half of the year, but was in line with the same period of last year.
looking ahead, high end manufacturing will have favorable policy support. local infrastructure spending is recovering and real estate development is expected to be resilient. as a result, fourth quarter fixed asset investment will maintain a steady growth pace. however, on a long term basis, the supportive effect of infrastructure and real estate investments to the economy is not sustainable. the former will be limited by the rapidly slipping income from land sales and the decrease in taxes and fees. even when there is a growth spurt in targeted debt issuance, the tight local fiscal situation will persist. the latter will be bound by the “apartments for living, not for speculation” policy. even when the de-stocking is complete, it is unlikely that we will see rapid growth in the new round of real estate investment. in the future, investments in manufacturing will be the key. this in turn will be determined by the pace of transition of the domestic economy, the directions of the policies, and the support of the capital markets. among these, the support from private equity investments are especially important.
on the domestic consumption side, we saw a small recovery in the growth rate in september thanks to the deceleration in the decrease of automobile sales. however, car sales are influenced by the holidays and a low basis of comparison. actual demand of automobiles from residents is still at a low point. as described in the previous issue, if we ignore the offsetting effect of inflation, third quarter consumption’s contribution to gdp growth is further weakening. with the recovery of consumption growth in september, first three quarters’ retail growth maintained the 8.2% rate we saw in the january to august period, but is still 0.2 percentage point lower than the first half of the year.
overall, the domestic consumption level stays low. as the residents’ disposable income growth slows from quarter to quarter, the recovery in consumption is nowhere in sight. our forecast is that the low consumption level will extend into the fourth quarter. further studies indicate that the weak resident income growth put a damper on marginal consumption tendency. however, as the offsetting effect of inflation and the implementation of previous consumption policies in the fourth quarter, consumption’s drag on gdp growth will be muted and unlikely to show a significant decline.
on the overseas demand side, september saw the export and import trade volume shrank further and on a larger scale. first three quarter export declined 0.1% compared to the same period last year and 0.2 of a percentage point lower than the growth speed in the first half of the year. import growth slipped 0.8 of a
percentage point, to -5%, compared to the first half of the year. nevertheless, as the import volume declined at a faster pace than export, recessionary surplus persisted with the third quarter surplus growing 118.6 billion us dollars and cumulative january to august surplus totaling 298.4 billion us dollars, a 79.1 billion increase compared to the same period last year. single month figures worsened. our studies indicate that aside from fundamental issues such as uncertainties with major global economies, us-china trade friction, and weak domestic demand, the basis for comparison and prices also contributed to the decline in september figures. specifically, us-china trade friction caused a decline in consumer goods exports which dragged down the september export figure.
in fact, the phase one success of us-china trade talks merely placed the two sides back to the positions before august. as the talks move toward core demands, the end results are still uncertain. what is clear is that us-china relationship will not be what it was even after the trade war is over. there will be more competition than cooperation between the two, and trade friction has expanded to capital markets, technology, culture, and the political scene.
boosted by seasonal overseas demands ahead of the holiday season, new export orders pmi rose 1 point to 48.2 compared to last month, but still on the contraction side. looking ahead, domestic economy might see some recovery from the counter cyclical policy support, but uncertainties in global economy and an increase in systemic risk in fourth quarter will limit the recovery in export, reducing the surplus as well as the positive effect of net export on domestic gdp growth.
on the private sector financing side, on-the-book renminbi loans, off-the-book non-standard debt, and corporate debt are main contributors to september private financing growth. when taken together, the first three quarters saw a). relatively rapid growth of renminbi loans despite the weakness in corporate medium- and long-term loan growth; b). robust growth in corporate debt, especially in local targeted debt issuance; c). significant improvement in the previously declining off-the-book financing. these reflect the fact that effective demand for financing was suppressed in the backdrop of the us-china trade friction and the low willingness to invest among enterprises. fourth quarter credit and financing data could still see a rebound, ensuring a healthy whole-year economic growth figure.
on the exchange rate side, the pressure for the renminbi to depreciate is expected to further lessen in the fourth quarter. first, the fundamental gap between the us and chinese economies is shrinking. second, the interest rate spread between us and china’s ten-year national debt stays at the historical high of 150bps. third, us-china trade talks is progressing positively and market expectation for renminbi depreciation is muted.
in the face of downward pressure, domestic counter-cyclical policies have been strengthened to target pain points. china maintained its open door policy which is now a basic national strategy, despite the complex external economic and political climate.
for equity investors, there are in fact many challenges, but also unprecedented opportunities. overall, with the continued progress of counter-cyclical adjustments in china, policies regarding private equity investments are being perfected and supported by the regulatory authorities. over the long term, equity investments can shrug off the negative effect of the new guidance of asset management. in the short term, equity investors are facing headwinds during its raise, investment, management, and exit during the economic downturn. the rule of the oligarchs persists with the strong staying strong.
our recommendation is that institutional equity investors pay close attention to local governments’ need for economic transition and upgrade during raises, and maintain communication with core financial institutions such as banks and insurance companies, in anticipation of opportunities as governmental policies come around to a favorable angle. on the investment side, note the directions that policies point to, which include high tech manufacturing, consumption upgrades, import substitution, new energy, and opportunities brought by the aging population. on the exit side, pay attention to the diversifying capital markets in china. in addition, as the bilateral opening up of capital markets pushes ahead, opportunities brought by cross-border investments should not be ignored. we recommend that attention be paid to the financial policy changes in the guangdong-hong kong-macau bay area and the opportunities that come with them.
as to potential risks, we advise that the following four issues be closely watched: a) potential flare-up of us-china trade tension; b) continued upward push to cpi by the supply end; c) systemic risk brought by the tightening real estate financing; and d) slowing resident income growth and deteriorating labor market.
