微弱企稳不改惯性下行趋势，谋定后动拥抱动能转换机遇 | 光大控股-九游会登录

虽然四季度增速不及全年，但是动能切换迹象明显，经济增长没有继续放缓，下行风险得到进一步缓释。我们认为低位止跌不等于“冬至春来”。今年一季度经济增长仍面临着诸如企业生产受制于前期利润亏损、居民失业率攀升，以及中美争端再起等负面因素的影响。即使逆周期政策持续发力，在实际需求尚未改善的前提下，仍然难改经济惯性下行的趋势。

具体看，12月宏观经济与金融市场：

生产端，工业生产继续趋势加速，企业预期进一步提升，其主要受出口环境修复、地产基建相关需求旺盛和汽车生产持续改善的推动。不过，这并不意味着经济能在短期内企稳回升，工业生产进度改善仍受实际需求疲软，企业利润亏损等拖累。

支出端，“三驾马车”均持续好转。第一、制造业投资增长大幅度跳升，进而带动12月固定资产投资增长明显回升。第二，消费增速维持高位，不过主要受国内通胀所支撑，实际居民消费进一步下滑，居民实际收入增长放缓与财富效应预期下行依旧是最大约束。第三，进出口贸易大幅度改善。其中出口低位反弹除了受低基数效应之外，中美宣布签署第一阶段协议，加征关税部分取消所带来的外需边际改善是主要动力。进口回升主要与11月以来大宗商品上涨、国内工业生产相对回升以及扩大由美国农产品进口有关。

融资端，社融同比增长平稳，主要受表内贷款增速上行与表外融资降幅减弱所支撑。虽然表内信贷投放，特别是中长期贷款持续改善，但是主要满足的是大型企业、国企央企的生产经营、城投平台债务置换，以及房地产非标置换的融资需求，对于中小微企业而言，特别是前期的经营匮乏，利润亏损的企业，融资难的现状未有实质性变化。

从私募股权的视角看，我们建议今年关注以下四方面的投资机会：

第一，智能制造。新旧动能转换下，传统制造业设备更新和技改投入领域值得关注，例如人工智能、5g、工业互联网等新一代信息技术与制造业融合发展等。我们认为中国工业4.0的进程才刚刚开始，智能制造将继续在“十四五”规划内列入重点。此外，可以关注其他战略性产业链的发展与整合机会，包括新材料、生物技术、新能源汽车、新能源、节能环保等相关产业。

第二，公募reits。随着中国经济增速放缓，如何提高投资效率，盘活商业不动产、租赁住房与基建项目所占用的大量资金，促进再投资能力，通过政策引导支持产业转型，消费升级等，已经是当前经济改革的重要抓手。根据观察，政策层将在今年内正式启动公募reits。建议对reits政策与业务试点保持跟踪与关注，对reits产品市场需求进行充分研究，择机推出相应的另类资产管理产品，联合银行一同挖掘其中的投融资机会。

第三，新消费。结构性消费降级趋势短期内不可忽视，高性价比产品对应的行业或产业值得关注；长期内，消费升级，高质量消费仍是主流。在下行确立的大环境下，建议继续关注消费领域的新群体、新品牌、新场景与新供应链/体系的投资机会。

第四，金融科技与投贷联动。随着国内利率市场化的深入推进，银行在贷款市场的垄断性将逐步打破，同时，银行对中小微企业信贷支持的力度在不断加大，科技型企业在银行客户结构比例逐步提升。双重压力下，一方面，银行比以往更关注金融科技的应用。另一方面，银行比以往更需要关注解决创新企业与银行投融资目标不相容问题的有效模式，其中投贷联动是一个方向。借助于投贷联动模式，银行可以通过股权投资机构将预期投资收益锁定，对债务性融资提供风险补偿，拓展了信贷投放的风险收益有效边界，提高了对初创企业的服务能力。目前，一些银行已设立了股权基金，与外部股权投资机构合作，积极部署投贷联动。

风险方面，我们建议对国内失业率、通胀率、地方政府财资约束以及金融业全面对外开放保持关注。进一步看，当前我们正面临着前所未有的大变局，新一轮科技革命与产业升级正加快重塑着世界，经济新旧动能加速转换，同时国际力量亦处于再均衡的过程中。这一切都意味着不确定性与不稳定性将更加突出。

虽然风险与挑战加大，但是也意味着世界发展会出现新趋势、面临新机遇。身处其中，我们要做到“谋定而后动，知止而有得”。只有保持战略定力，顺应发展大势，才能把握机会，实现行稳致远。

overall, december economic data continued to improve from the recovering supply and demand data in november. industrial output and manufacturing investment accelerated while credit continued to support the growth. as a result, fourth quarter saw a weak stabilization where growth was the same as third quarter (6%). whole year gdp growth holds steady at 6.1%. final consumption expenditure’s contribution to gdp lessened in fourth quarter as the economy relied more on gross capital formation contribution to grow.

despite the slower growth rate compared to the rest of the year, there was evidence of a dynamic shift as economic growth did not slow further and downward risk was further eased. however, we do not believe the bottoming meant the coming of spring. first quarter 2020 growth still faces obstacles including previous period losses hampering business production, the climbing unemployment rate among residents, as well as potential recurrence of us-china trade disputes. even as counter-cyclical policies continue to help, the economy will not reverse its slide without improvement of real demand.

december macro and financial markets in details:

on the manufacturing side, recovery of export conditions, strong demand from infrastructure and real estate investments, and improvements in automobile production pushed industrial output to accelerate. nevertheless, these do not mean the economy would see a near-term stabilization or recovery. industrial production was still weighed down by the lack of real demand and earlier business losses.

on the expenditure side, the “the three carriages”(the three components of gdp) continued to improve. firstly, manufacturing investment jumped, bringing december fixed asset investment significantly higher. secondly, domestic consumption growth maintained its fast pace, although real consumption slipped when adjusted for domestic inflation. slowing of real domestic income growth and slumping wealth effect were the primary factors weighing down consumption. thirdly, import and export improved remarkably. among them, export rebounded not only because of the previous low level but also the us-china phase one agreement and the cancellation of tariffs improved marginal demand. import growth was mostly related to commodities’ price increase since november, recovery of domestic industrial production, and expansion of import program of us agricultural products.

on the financing side, the aggregate financing to the real economy (afre) (flow) steadily climbed thanks to acceleration of bank loan growth and slowing of off-balance-sheet borrowing(entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptances) decline. although on-balance-sheet credit supply improved, particularly on the medium- to long-term side, the loans primarily served the needs of large or state-owned enterprises, debt swapping of local government financing vehicles, as well as non-standard swapping of real estate financings. for the small- to medium-sized manufacturers, financing remained uneasy, especially for those who suffering in the previous profit-loss and inadequate management

from the perspective of private equity investment, we suggest further attention on the following four aspects during 2020:

first, smart manufacturing. as the new drivers replace the old, traditional manufacturing equipment upgrades and technological investments are worth paying attention to. some examples include artificial intelligence, 5g, and fusion of next generation information technologies with manufacturing, such as internet of things(iot). we believe china is still early on its path to industry 4.0. smart manufacturing will be a key sector in the fourteenth five year plan. in addition, development and integration opportunities in other key strategic sectors might also be worth looking into, and these include new material, biotechnology, alternative fuel vehicle, renewable energy, and environmental protection.

second, reits. as the chinese economy cools, the economic reform is increasingly focusing on improving investment efficiency, putting the capital stock in commercial real estate, rental apartments, and infrastructure projects to good use, enhancing the reinvestment capability, as well as guiding industrial transformation and consumption upgrades through policies. we believe regulator will officially launch public offering reits market within 2020. tracking closely on reits policies and test runs, research on reits market demands and product design, and cooperate with banks to uncover investment and financing opportunities are recommedned.

third, new consumption. structural downgrade of consumption cannot be ignored in the short run, so are cost-effective products and sectors. however, over the long run, consumption upgrade and high quality consumption are still the mainstream. as the downward trend prevails, we recommend focusing on investment opportunities in new target groups, new brands, and new supply chain or systems.

fourth, fintech and venture lending. as interest rate liberalization deepens in china, the monopoly of banks in the credit market will be gradually broken. at the same time, banks are boosting their support for the small- to medium-sized firms, and share of tech firms among bank customers is increasing. faced with these, the banks are paying more attention to fintech than before. and, banks are also more concerned with finding an effective way to resolve the incompatibility between the bank’s targets and the needs of tech firms. venture lending could be a possible path to the solution. through venture lending, banks can lock in expected investment returns through vcpe firms, which compensates for the risks taken by debt financing, expands the effective risk-return boundary, and enhances the banks’ ability to serve start-up companies. at this time, some banks have set up equity funds to cooperate with external firms, as part of their venture lending program.

on the risk side, we recommend watching out for domestic unemployment, inflation, limits of regional government finances, and the opening up of the financial industry to foreigners. further ahead, we see unprecedented changes as a new round of technological revolution and industrial upgrades are reshaping the world. new economic drivers are replacing old ones at a faster pace. global forces are also in the process of rebalancing. all these mean uncertainties and instabilities will be more pronounced.

despite the increased risks and challenges, new trends and new opportunities will also emerge as the world develops. as we are in the midst of it, the best approach is therefore careful planning and knowing what to expect. only those who keep calm and proceed in the right direction can seize the opportunities and go far.