季初擾動導致供需兩弱，經濟下行有限無需多慮
要點
宏觀經濟
整體看，10月國內經濟呈現供需兩弱。但若剔除工業生產與信貸融資季初回落的正常變動、節假日因素、“雙11”消費後置等短期影響後，實際基本面並沒有進一步惡化。我們認為當前經濟下行風險已降低。考慮到mlf降息，基建投資資本金比例下調等托底政策舉措，接下來兩個月經濟走勢有支撐，全年gdp“破6”可能不大。
生產端資料顯示，10月工業生產再度走弱。10月工業生產遵循了今年4月和7月“季末沖高效應”後工業生產暫時回落的現象，具有明顯的季初回落特徵。出現這種現象主要是由於在經濟下行期，銀行信貸的政策性影響較大，季末衝量造成生產週期的相應波動。另外，從產業層面看，資料下行主要受出口生產下行與環保限產的拖累。不過儘管10月資料再度走弱，但仍高於8月的最低點。接下來兩個月及2020年工業生產能否平穩復蘇要看外部需求何時回升、國內民企經營環境優化，以及進一步的貨幣與財政政策支持措施等。總的來看，上述因素反轉都需時日，因此，工業生產預計難見大幅度反轉。我們仍維持原有判斷，工業生產或維持低位，存在下行壓力，但在政策托底支持下，底部呈現邊際趨穩。
固定資產投資方面，雖然10月整體固定資產投資面臨減速，但是存在韌性，短期內，大幅下滑的可能性不大。製造業投資持續低位回升，且當月增幅明顯。不過需要注意的是，政策指引下國企或政府產業基金是拉動增速回升的主力，民企擴大投資積極性偏低，當前製造業投資內生動力仍不足，可持續性有待觀察。基建方面，雖然受2019年新增專項債發行額度耗盡等因素影響，10月基建投資增速回落，但是在11月13日國常會等政策托底下，後續基建投資增長將維持低位上行的走勢。最後，房地產方面，10月房地產開發速度略有放緩，但受銷售強勁盤活融資的支撐，預計四季度內仍維持在當前區間。中長期看，基建投資與地產開發的托底作用不可持續，前者在於即使專項債發力，受制於土地轉讓收入大幅下滑與減稅降費等影響，地方財政緊張趨勢不變，而後者在“房住不炒”等政策約束下，新一輪房地產投資難以出現過往的高增長情景。事實上，製造業投資仍是關鍵，能否帶動整體固定資產投資的回升不僅取決於政策指引方向和國有資本主導的產業基金，還取決於整體資本市場的支持力度，私募股權投資機構將在其中扮演著重要的角色。
內需方面，居民消費持續低迷。接下來11月社零增速預計將受“雙11”影響呈現明顯環比提升，但是整體四季度消費低迷趨勢不變。外需方面持續偏弱，衰退式順差進一步擴大。儘管近期中美貿易談判進展樂觀，但是中國對美出口修復進而帶動整體貿易復蘇在短期內恐怕難見蹤影。
融資端顯示，10月社融增長顯著回落，其中表內貸款和專項債是社融增長主要的拖累項。結構上看，信貸資料走低主要由居民短期貸款收縮所致，原因或部分在於銀保監會嚴查“涉房”消費貸資金與互聯網貸款的監管收緊。相比之下，反映實體經濟融資需求的企業中長期貸款已連續三個月同比多增，原因在於城投平台推進隱性債務置換，表外專案被置換並體現為企業中長期貸款形式上的改善，而不一定是實體經濟復蘇的信號。另外，表外融資下降趨緩也顯示當前對房地產的融資可能正在邊際趨緩。最後，市場上對明年地方債額度，能否提前到今年使用存在爭議。若明年的額度可調用至今年，那麼年末社融將得到有力支撐。
匯率方面，受益于中美經貿高級別磋商取得積極進展、美聯儲10月中旬宣佈重啟國債購買計畫，以及美聯儲月末宣佈年內第三次降息等影響，當月離岸人民幣兌美元即期匯率持續走強，回升至7以內。相對應地，10月外儲規模亦小幅上升。
股權投資行業
首先、募資端延續下滑趨勢，市場二八效應顯著。其中早期和vc基金募資同比收縮幅度遠超pe。pe基金之所以能保持募資總額的相對平穩，主要有賴於基建地產和紓困基金的推升。多數存量pe機構面臨的募資境遇較同比數字實則更為惡劣。為了紓解上述募資困境，10月25日，發改委牽頭發佈資管新規細則，明確vc基金和政府出資產業投資基金可豁免多層嵌套，對行業募資起到一定正向作用。機構自身則更多佈局外幣募資，美元基金主體愈發多元化。
其次、投資端呈現活躍度大幅下降，外幣投資顯著降溫的情況。受市場環境影響，投資人多呈觀望態度。投資方向更多集中在it、互聯網和醫療健康等熱門領域，同時投資階段則更多側重於擴張期和成熟期投資。
最後，退出端顯示，科創板開板，ipo退出蔚為成潮。前三季度，中國股權投資市場企業ipo同比上升54.4%，其中科創板的開板和高發行密度是退出案例大增的主要原因。然而，儘管科創板為退出市場提供了新路徑，但從全市場看，前三季度被投企業ipo帳面回報整體不佳，退出形勢依然嚴峻。
summary
the macro economy and finance
overall, october domestic supply and demand were both weak. however, when we adjust for the seasonal decreases in industrial production and credit financing, the impact of the holidays, and the delaying effect of 11-11 super buying day on consumption, the real fundamentals showed no sign of worsening. we believe the downward risk of the economy has been abated. considering the cuts in mlf rate and infrastructure investment reserve ratio, the economy is on solid support for the coming two months. it is unlikely that the whole year gdp growth will dip below 6%.
supply side data shows october industrial output declined, following a seasonal pattern we witnessed in april and july, when the “quarter-end push” caused production to rise and then drop. the pattern is the result of the more pronounced effect of policies on bank credit during an economic downturn, which increased at the end of a quarter. sector-wise, the drop in export production and production limits for environmental purposes are the main negative factors. as weak as october data is, it is still better than the august low. whether industrial output can have a smooth recovery in the following two months and 2020 will depend on the timing of external demand, improvement of domestic private sector business environment, and further fiscal and monetary policy support. all the above factors will take time to materialize. as a result, industrial production will not see a massive reversal soon. we maintain our opinion that industrial output will hover at a low level with the presence of downward pressure. however, production is expected to stabilize when it reaches a low level because of the presence of supportive policies.
total fixed asset investment in october faced deceleration, but resilience remained. in the short run, there is little possibility of it dropping off a cliff. manufacturing investments rose from a low level, posting significant growth during the month. notably, state-owned or government industrial investment funds were the main forces pulling the growth under the guidance of government policies. there is little enthusiasm among private companies to expand their investments. endogenous investments in manufacturing is weak and its sustainability is yet to be determined. on the infrastructure side, october investment growth fell because of various factors such as the exhaustion of 2019 targeted debt issuance quota, but because of the underpinnings of policies enacted by the standing committee of the state council on november 13, future infrastructure investment growth is expected to rise from its low level. finally, on the real estate side, october development slowed, but as strong sales figures provided liquidity, fourth quarter growth is expected to maintain current speed. over the medium and long term, infrastructure and real state sectors’ support cannot be sustained. as the tight local government fiscal situation persists, the former is limited by the decrease in revenues from land sales and taxes, despite the issuance of targeted debt. the latter is confined by the policy that excludes housing from investment purposes. the next round of real estate investments are not expected to repeat the same high growth story from the past. in fact, manufacturing investment remains the key. whether fixed asset investment as a whole will see a recovery will not only depend on policy guidance and industrial funds set up by state-owned capital sources, the support from capital market is also crucial. private equity institutions will play an important role in this process.
on the domestic demand side, consumption by the residents remained muted. november retail growth will be boosted by the 11-11 super buying day, but the fourth quarter is still expected to see a low consumption trend. external demand stayed weak as well with recessionary surplus expanding further. despite the optimism with us-china trade talks, a recovery in trade, brought by resurging export to the us from china, is not expected to come soon.
on the financing side, october private financing posted a steep drop in growth speed. on-the-books loans and targeted debts are the main drags to the private financing scene. structurally, the shrinking on-shore short-term loans caused total credit to weaken. the reason could be partially due to the birc’s scrutiny over real estate-related consumer loans and tightening regulatory pressure over internet-based loans. as a comparison, corporate medium to long-term loans, which usually reflect the real economy’s financing needs, have posted three months of growth. the reason lies in the implicit debt replacements by the regional governmental investment vehicles, which move off-balance-sheet items around and seemingly increase medium to long-term corporate loans but are not necessarily a sign of recovery economy. in addition, the slowing of the decrease of off-balance-sheet financing could mean marginally improving real estate financing. finally, there are discussions in the market place about using next year’s local debt quotas this year. year-end private financings will be firmly boosted if next year’s quotas could be moved into this year.
the exchange rate was boosted by the positive progress of us-china trade talks, fed’s restart of debt purchasing plan announced in mid-october, and the third rate cut by the fed in the year. off-shore renminbi to usd spot rate continued to rise a level below 7. correspondingly, october foreign exchange reserve also posted a small increase.
private equity investments
firstly, fund raising continued to slide with a pronounced 20-80 effect. angel and vc fund raising shrank at a much faster rate than private equity’s. private equity funds were able to maintain a stable fund raising level, mostly due to the boost from infrastructure, real estate, and distressed funds. for most operating pe institutions, fund raising is much more difficult than the numbers look. to help ease the situation, the ndrc issued a new asset management guidance on october 25, clearly spelling out that vc and state-owned industrial funds are exempt from layering limits in a positive message to the sector. the institutions, on the other hand, have become more active in raising foreign currency funds. usd funds have further diversified.
secondly, there has been a significant drop in deployment of funds, including foreign currency funds. many investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. funds that actually are invested focused on hot areas such as it, internet and healthcare, and on expanding and mature targets.
finally, on the exit end, the star board has seen a flood of ipo exits. during the first three quarters, chinese equity market saw an increase by 54.4% of ipos. the star board, with its high issuance frequency, has been the main contributor to the increase of exits. nevertheless, return from the target companies that were listed in the first three quarters has not been stellar as a whole, despite the new path that the star board blazed for them. exiting remains a difficult process.
