季初扰动导致供需两弱，经济下行有限无需多虑
要点
宏观经济
整体看，10月国内经济呈现供需两弱。但若剔除工业生产与信贷融资季初回落的正常变动、节假日因素、“双11”消费后置等短期影响后，实际基本面并没有进一步恶化。我们认为当前经济下行风险已降低。考虑到mlf降息，基建投资资本金比例下调等托底政策举措，接下来两个月经济走势有支撑，全年gdp“破6”可能不大。
生产端数据显示，10月工业生产再度走弱。10月工业生产遵循了今年4月和7月“季末冲高效应”后工业生产暂时回落的现象，具有明显的季初回落特征。出现这种现象主要是由于在经济下行期，银行信贷的政策性影响较大，季末冲量造成生产周期的相应波动。另外，从产业层面看，数据下行主要受出口生产下行与环保限产的拖累。不过尽管10月数据再度走弱，但仍高于8月的最低点。接下来两个月及2020年工业生产能否平稳复苏要看外部需求何时回升、国内民企经营环境优化，以及进一步的货币与财政政策支持措施等。总的来看，上述因素反转都需时日，因此，工业生产预计难见大幅度反转。我们仍维持原有判断，工业生产或维持低位，存在下行压力，但在政策托底支持下，底部呈现边际趋稳。
固定资产投资方面，虽然10月整体固定资产投资面临减速，但是存在韧性，短期内，大幅下滑的可能性不大。制造业投资持续低位回升，且当月增幅明显。不过需要注意的是，政策指引下国企或政府产业基金是拉动增速回升的主力，民企扩大投资积极性偏低，当前制造业投资内生动力仍不足，可持续性有待观察。基建方面，虽然受2019年新增专项债发行额度耗尽等因素影响，10月基建投资增速回落，但是在11月13日国常会等政策托底下，后续基建投资增长将维持低位上行的走势。最后，房地产方面，10月房地产开发速度略有放缓，但受销售强劲盘活融资的支撑，预计四季度内仍维持在当前区间。中长期看，基建投资与地产开发的托底作用不可持续，前者在于即使专项债发力，受制于土地转让收入大幅下滑与减税降费等影响，地方财政紧张趋势不变，而后者在“房住不炒”等政策约束下，新一轮房地产投资难以出现过往的高增长情景。事实上，制造业投资仍是关键，能否带动整体固定资产投资的回升不仅取决于政策指引方向和国有资本主导的产业基金，还取决于整体资本市场的支持力度，私募股权投资机构将在其中扮演着重要的角色。
内需方面，居民消费持续低迷。接下来11月社零增速预计将受“双11”影响呈现明显环比提升，但是整体四季度消费低迷趋势不变。外需方面持续偏弱，衰退式顺差进一步扩大。尽管近期中美贸易谈判进展乐观，但是中国对美出口修复进而带动整体贸易复苏在短期内恐怕难见踪影。
融资端显示，10月社融增长显著回落，其中表内贷款和专项债是社融增长主要的拖累项。结构上看，信贷数据走低主要由居民短期贷款收缩所致，原因或部分在于银保监会严查“涉房”消费贷资金与互联网贷款的监管收紧。相比之下，反映实体经济融资需求的企业中长期贷款已连续三个月同比多增，原因在于城投平台推进隐性债务置换，表外项目被置换并体现为企业中长期贷款形式上的改善，而不一定是实体经济复苏的信号。另外，表外融资下降趋缓也显示当前对房地产的融资可能正在边际趋缓。最后，市场上对明年地方债额度，能否提前到今年使用存在争议。若明年的额度可调用至今年，那么年末社融将得到有力支撑。
汇率方面，受益于中美经贸高级别磋商取得积极进展、美联储10月中旬宣布重启国债购买计划，以及美联储月末宣布年内第三次降息等影响，当月离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率持续走强，回升至7以内。相对应地，10月外储规模亦小幅上升。
股权投资行业
首先、募资端延续下滑趋势，市场二八效应显著。其中早期和vc基金募资同比收缩幅度远超pe。pe基金之所以能保持募资总额的相对平稳，主要有赖于基建地产和纾困基金的推升。多数存量pe机构面临的募资境遇较同比数字实则更为恶劣。为了纾解上述募资困境，10月25日，发改委牵头发布资管新规细则，明确vc基金和政府出资产业投资基金可豁免多层嵌套，对行业募资起到一定正向作用。机构自身则更多布局外币募资，美元基金主体愈发多元化。
其次、投资端呈现活跃度大幅下降，外币投资显著降温的情况。受市场环境影响，投资人多呈观望态度。投资方向更多集中在it、互联网和医疗健康等热门领域，同时投资阶段则更多侧重于扩张期和成熟期投资。
最后，退出端显示，科创板开板，ipo退出蔚为成潮。前三季度，中国股权投资市场企业ipo同比上升54.4%，其中科创板的开板和高发行密度是退出案例大增的主要原因。然而，尽管科创板为退出市场提供了新路径，但从全市场看，前三季度被投企业ipo账面回报整体不佳，退出形势依然严峻。
summary
the macro economy and finance
overall, october domestic supply and demand were both weak. however, when we adjust for the seasonal decreases in industrial production and credit financing, the impact of the holidays, and the delaying effect of 11-11 super buying day on consumption, the real fundamentals showed no sign of worsening. we believe the downward risk of the economy has been abated. considering the cuts in mlf rate and infrastructure investment reserve ratio, the economy is on solid support for the coming two months. it is unlikely that the whole year gdp growth will dip below 6%.
supply side data shows october industrial output declined, following a seasonal pattern we witnessed in april and july, when the “quarter-end push” caused production to rise and then drop. the pattern is the result of the more pronounced effect of policies on bank credit during an economic downturn, which increased at the end of a quarter. sector-wise, the drop in export production and production limits for environmental purposes are the main negative factors. as weak as october data is, it is still better than the august low. whether industrial output can have a smooth recovery in the following two months and 2020 will depend on the timing of external demand, improvement of domestic private sector business environment, and further fiscal and monetary policy support. all the above factors will take time to materialize. as a result, industrial production will not see a massive reversal soon. we maintain our opinion that industrial output will hover at a low level with the presence of downward pressure. however, production is expected to stabilize when it reaches a low level because of the presence of supportive policies.
total fixed asset investment in october faced deceleration, but resilience remained. in the short run, there is little possibility of it dropping off a cliff. manufacturing investments rose from a low level, posting significant growth during the month. notably, state-owned or government industrial investment funds were the main forces pulling the growth under the guidance of government policies. there is little enthusiasm among private companies to expand their investments. endogenous investments in manufacturing is weak and its sustainability is yet to be determined. on the infrastructure side, october investment growth fell because of various factors such as the exhaustion of 2019 targeted debt issuance quota, but because of the underpinnings of policies enacted by the standing committee of the state council on november 13, future infrastructure investment growth is expected to rise from its low level. finally, on the real estate side, october development slowed, but as strong sales figures provided liquidity, fourth quarter growth is expected to maintain current speed. over the medium and long term, infrastructure and real state sectors’ support cannot be sustained. as the tight local government fiscal situation persists, the former is limited by the decrease in revenues from land sales and taxes, despite the issuance of targeted debt. the latter is confined by the policy that excludes housing from investment purposes. the next round of real estate investments are not expected to repeat the same high growth story from the past. in fact, manufacturing investment remains the key. whether fixed asset investment as a whole will see a recovery will not only depend on policy guidance and industrial funds set up by state-owned capital sources, the support from capital market is also crucial. private equity institutions will play an important role in this process.
on the domestic demand side, consumption by the residents remained muted. november retail growth will be boosted by the 11-11 super buying day, but the fourth quarter is still expected to see a low consumption trend. external demand stayed weak as well with recessionary surplus expanding further. despite the optimism with us-china trade talks, a recovery in trade, brought by resurging export to the us from china, is not expected to come soon.
on the financing side, october private financing posted a steep drop in growth speed. on-the-books loans and targeted debts are the main drags to the private financing scene. structurally, the shrinking on-shore short-term loans caused total credit to weaken. the reason could be partially due to the birc’s scrutiny over real estate-related consumer loans and tightening regulatory pressure over internet-based loans. as a comparison, corporate medium to long-term loans, which usually reflect the real economy’s financing needs, have posted three months of growth. the reason lies in the implicit debt replacements by the regional governmental investment vehicles, which move off-balance-sheet items around and seemingly increase medium to long-term corporate loans but are not necessarily a sign of recovery economy. in addition, the slowing of the decrease of off-balance-sheet financing could mean marginally improving real estate financing. finally, there are discussions in the market place about using next year’s local debt quotas this year. year-end private financings will be firmly boosted if next year’s quotas could be moved into this year.
the exchange rate was boosted by the positive progress of us-china trade talks, fed’s restart of debt purchasing plan announced in mid-october, and the third rate cut by the fed in the year. off-shore renminbi to usd spot rate continued to rise a level below 7. correspondingly, october foreign exchange reserve also posted a small increase.
private equity investments
firstly, fund raising continued to slide with a pronounced 20-80 effect. angel and vc fund raising shrank at a much faster rate than private equity’s. private equity funds were able to maintain a stable fund raising level, mostly due to the boost from infrastructure, real estate, and distressed funds. for most operating pe institutions, fund raising is much more difficult than the numbers look. to help ease the situation, the ndrc issued a new asset management guidance on october 25, clearly spelling out that vc and state-owned industrial funds are exempt from layering limits in a positive message to the sector. the institutions, on the other hand, have become more active in raising foreign currency funds. usd funds have further diversified.
secondly, there has been a significant drop in deployment of funds, including foreign currency funds. many investors have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. funds that actually are invested focused on hot areas such as it, internet and healthcare, and on expanding and mature targets.
finally, on the exit end, the star board has seen a flood of ipo exits. during the first three quarters, chinese equity market saw an increase by 54.4% of ipos. the star board, with its high issuance frequency, has been the main contributor to the increase of exits. nevertheless, return from the target companies that were listed in the first three quarters has not been stellar as a whole, despite the new path that the star board blazed for them. exiting remains a difficult process.
