内外环境曲折多变，下行压力再度增加
要点
一、宏观经济和金融
总体看，7月经济数据未能延续6月改善趋势。外部变局加大，而内部调控进一步趋紧，供需两端再度转弱，实体经济下行压力加大。
7月工业生产放缓，未能延续6月的回升，制造业生产增速明显回落。在经济下行压力增加的背景下，企业以主动去库存与被动补库存为主，并无主动增加库存动力。
固定资产投资亦未能延续6月的上行趋势，相反呈现悬崖式下滑。其中房地产投资下滑显著，基建投资增速也再次放缓。然而，受益于减税降负、产业政策支持以及“进口代替”推动部分高技术制造业投资等因素，制造业投资继续保持低位回暖。这虽然是经济结构调整过程中的应有之色，但由于制造业体量不足，房地产投资下行对整体固定资产投资形成较大压力。我们关注房地产融资市场的变化以及过程中可能出现的中小房企资金链断裂风险。
内需方面，7月国内消费增长亦明显回落。事实上，前两个月支持消费的主要是汽车消费。随着政策红利的消失，消费压力再度显现。考虑到当前居民就业压力加大、失业率提升，以及股市房市所带来的财富效应减弱，下半年消费压力巨大，而政策调控目前尚未见到对消费有显著帮助。
外需方面，由于中国积极寻找出口替代，对欧洲和东南亚出口增长显著，7月整体贸易增长有所修复。然而由于进口增长依然低迷，同比速度持续低于出口，衰退式贸易顺差进一步扩大。考虑到近期人民币汇率贬值，加之外围的降息潮可能有助于促进外需恢复，接下来出口或有一定提升空间。但与此同时，贸易争端的影响则会带来不确定性和新的扰动。根据我们的测算，若美国继续加征关税，下半年国内出口可能仍有3个百分点左右的下滑空间，不过对gdp的影响有限。
从企业融资看，在专项债持续发力和科创板开板影响下，7月直接融资明显回暖，但表内信贷环比大幅回落，导致整体社会融资出现较大下滑。受此影响，社融存量同比增速从6月的10.9%回落至10.7%。目前仍处于2019年的相对高位，但进一步走势值得关注。在中美贸易曲折多变和风险明显提升、企业避险情绪增加的环境下，企业信贷需求进一步下降，社融增长有继续放慢趋势，而与此同时，民营和小微企业则面临愈发严峻的融资困难和信用风险。
贸易战阴霾之下，人民币汇率走势崎岖波动，并于8月破“7”。不过由于美国二季度起自身经济下行风险增加，加之中美利差已高达130个基点，汇率仍有相对稳定的支撑基础。但若下半年国内宏观经济显著下滑，中美冲突继续升级，悲观情形下，不排除人民币汇率有进一步走贬的可能。
二、私募股权投资
上半年，私募股权投资市场延续去年以来的下滑趋势，不同统计分析机构包括投中、清科等都先后公布半年度报告。虽然由于统计原因具体金额差异较大，但是总体大幅下降趋势一致。7月，股权募资端继续下降，单月募资额再创年初以来新低。根据wind统计，1-7月募资完成额累计1273亿元，较去年同期下降86%。私募股权整体募资环境寒冬依旧。科创板开板的交投活跃和对退出渠道拓宽，并未如市场年初普遍预期的那样，立杆见影对私募股权市场募资局面实质利好。
投资端，7月新增投资完成额492.6亿元，较前月多增42.2亿元，较去年同期少增1401亿元。由此影响，1-7月投资完成额同比下降57%。募资额与投资额之比已下降至不到10%的新低点，存量可投资资金（dry powder）正在进一步枯竭。投资方向上，7月进一步向信息技术集中，占整体投资规模的64%，其次是金融、生物医药和工业。
退出端，7月国内私募股权投资市场实现退出17.8亿元，环比前月大幅少退27.3亿元，较去年同期少退105.5亿元。1-7月累计实现投资退出1578.7亿元，较去年同期增长164%。实际上，沪深股市ipo单月过会率已连续两月出现高位回落,而中小创市净率仍在2018年年中估值附近徘徊，可见当前上市退出的环境对私募股权市场并不全然有利。正因如此，退出压力开始推动行业整合，产生大量并购退出需求。从投资退出的模式看，7月有60%的投资并购实现退出，而1-7月累计数据显示并购退出仍是今年的主流方式。
此外，中美关系的新变化预计将对私募股权行业产生长期影响。即使后续中美谈判能有阶段性进展，也难以扭转中美冲突与对抗加剧的整体态势。在最坏情形下，不排除全球出现中美两个标准和两套体系的可能。我们预计中美冲突将拉锯化和反复化，对私募股权投资产生不利影响。不过危中有机，这也将为各个方面带来新的发展机遇。具体而言，中美冲突：
对募资端：1）将加剧经济和资本市场不确定性，市场信心受挫；2）或波及美元融资，美对华投资意愿或明显降低；3）对外开放和外商投资限制放宽，长远便利海外募资。
对投资端：短期来看，1）将令经济基本面承压，企业盈利增长缺乏内生动力，优质投资标紧缺；2）使关键技术领域投资审查趋严，跨境投资难度加大；3）odi方式对外投资可能因外汇储备压力，审批不确定性有所增加；4）驱动投资人风险偏好降低，投资节奏有所放缓。而从长远角度看：1）中国对外投资需求仍将持续增长；2）贸易战将加快“进口替代”，相关投资机遇正应运而生；3）海外投资人仍将重视对华投资，而对外开放将激化行业竞争；4）一带一路将孕育新的发展机遇。
最后，从退出端，虽然短期内投资标可能面临经营业绩下滑、偿债能力减弱、估值波动、再融资前景恶化、上市周期延长，及不确定性因素增加等不利因素，但从长远角度看，中美相互需求长期存在，中国产业升级难以阻遏，并且本土技术创新将得到政策更多扶持，相关企业上市退出将获得便利。
new twists in external and internal developments as downward pressure further develops
1、the macro economy and finance
overall, july has not seen the same improvements in economic data as june did. housing measures were tightened while external volatilities increased. supply and demand sides both weakened again, putting more severe pressure on the real economy.
industrial output did not continue the upward trend from june. as manufacturing growth slowed down to a crawl, companies actively reduced inventory and only passively replenished stock, with no proactive motivation to build up inventory.
fixed assets investments did not continue june’s upward trend either. instead, they fell off a cliff. among those, real estate investments dropped significantly, while infrastructure investment growth slowed again. investments in the manufacturing sector, however, benefited from reduced taxes and fees, favorable industrial policies, as well as the results of import substitution strategy on certain high-tech manufacturing sectors, and kept its rebound from a low point. although this is a stage that structural reform of the economy must go through, manufacturing is a relatively small sector while the decrease in real estate investment puts considerable pressure on fixed asset investments as a whole. we are closely watching changes in real estate financing situation and in particular, the risk of capital chain rupture among mid-sized and small real estate enterprises in this process.
internally, consumer demand growth in july also slowed down. as a matter of fact, auto sales supported the consumer demand in the two previous months. as favorable policies ended, downward sales pressure resumed. considering the worsening employment situation and the disappearing effect on wealth from real estate and stock markets, second half consumer demand is facing enormous pressure, and policy adjustments have not had visible effect on consumption.
as china seems actively altering its trade destinations to eu and elsewhere, china's export achieved an obvious improvement. nevertheless at the same time, import growth was still muted and lagged behind export growth from the same period. as a result, the recessionary trade surplus further expanded. we believe the depreciation of the renminbi and the overseas interest rates cut could provide certain growth room for export moving forward. however, trade disputes will bring uncertainty and new volatility. based on our estimates, if the us continues increasing its tariff, second half export could slip further by 3 percentage points, with limited impact on gdp.
on the financing side, targeted local government debt issuance and sse star market boosted the direct financings in july, but the lendings on bank’s balance sheets plummeted, causing a significant drop in overall social financing. as a result, credit growth decreased from 10.9% in june to 10.7% in july. although still at a high level in 2019, the trend is concerning. as the us-china trade talks go through twists and turns, volatility increase and sentiments shift toward the risk-averse side. demand for financing is slowing down with similar consequence for actual lending growth. meanwhile, private and small enterprises face increased difficulties in financing and credit.
the renminbi went through a rough patch, with its exchange rate breaking through 7 as the trade war went on in august. however, as the us recession risk increased and the us-china interest spread at 130 basis points, the rmb exchange rate remains resilient. on the other hand, if the situation further worsens, under a pessimistic scenario, the exchange rate could be pressured again.
2、private equity investments
in the first half of 2019, private equity investments extended the downward trend from last year. institutions including china venture and zero2ipo group issued h1 reports with different figures because of their individual angles, but the significantly downward trend was clear. in july, equity fund raising decreased again, with the monthly figure hitting a new low for the year. wind data shows 127.3 billion raised from january to july, a 86% drop compared to the same period last year. the overall market is still chilling. sse start market has seen active trading and the addition of an exit option, but it has not been as an immediate boost as expected at the beginning of the year.
on the investment side, there were 49.36 billion new investments, a 4.22 billion increase from last month but a 140.1 billion decrease from the same period last year. as a result, january-july investments dropped 57% compared to same period last year. the difference between the amount raised and invested dropped to a new low point of less than 10%. dry powder is further drying up. direction-wise, investments in july further focused on information technology, which took up 64% of the total. finance, medtech, and industrials followed.
on the exit side, private equity sector saw 1.78 billion funds exiting in july, a 2.73 billion decrease from last month and 10.55 billion decrease from same period last year. total exits from january to july totaled 157.87 billion, a 164% increase from same period last year. in fact, ipo approval rates in shenzhen and shanghai markets have seen a decrease from their high points for two months in a row, and the market cap to net asset ratio in smaller and tech boards hovered around the mid-point of 2018. it is obvious that the climate for private equity exits was not all favorable. as a result, pressure to exit is driving sector integration, generating m&a demands as a path for exit. 60% of exits in july were through m&a while january-july data shows m&a has been the mainstream method for this year.
an additional note is that the new developments in us-china relations is going to have a long term effect on the private equity market. even if further trade talks produces positive results, the overall conflict between the two countries cannot be reversed. in the worst scenario, the possibility of a parallel system, led by us and china, cannot be ruled out. we expect the conflict to be a seesaw one that goes back and forth, with unfavorable effect on the private equity market. however, every crisis brings new opportunities. in particular,
on the fund raising side, it might 1) increase market volatility and erode confidence; 2) affect usd fund raising as the willingness of us firms to invest in china is weakened; 3) the loosened restrictions on foreign investments will make overseas fund raising easier.
on the investment side, the short term effects are: 1) fundamentals will be broadly under pressure. intrinsic profit generating capability of the companies will be lagging, leading to a decrease in quality investment targets; 2) regulations on key technological sector investments are tightened, making cross-border investment more difficult; 3) odi investments face more approval uncertainty with pressure from the shrinking foreign reserve; 4) investors become more risk-averse and slow down their pace. on the long term, 1) demand for outbound investment will continue to increase; 2) the trade war will force import substitutions, creating investment opportunities. 3) foreign investors still value china as an investment destination and competition could intensify as china opens up more; 4) the belt and road initiative can bring new development opportunities.
finally, from the exit end, investment targets might be facing slipping results, weakened capability for debt repayments, fluctuations in valuation, worse financing expectations, extended ipo schedule, as well as other uncertainties in the short term, over the long term, the need for us and china for each other will still exist and the upgrading of chinese industrial structure cannot be stopped. domestic innovation will be supported by government policies, paving a smoother way for companies to go public and investors to exit.
