內外環境曲折多變，下行壓力再度增加
要點
一、宏觀經濟和金融
總體看，7月經濟數據未能延續6月改善趨勢。外部變局加大，而內部調控進一步趨緊，供需兩端再度轉弱，實體經濟下行壓力加大。
7月工業生產放緩，未能延續6月的回升，製造業生產增速明顯回落。在經濟下行壓力增加的背景下，企業以主動去庫存與被動補庫存為主，並無主動增加庫存動力。
固定資產投資亦未能延續6月的上行趨勢，相反呈現懸崖式下滑。其中房地產投資下滑顯著，基建投資增速也再次放緩。然而，受益於減稅降負、產業政策支持以及“進口代替”推動部分高技術製造業投資等因素，製造業投資繼續保持低位回暖。這雖然是經濟結構調整過程中的應有之色，但由於製造業體量不足，房地產投資下行對整體固定資產投資形成較大壓力。我們關注房地產融資市場的變化以及過程中可能出現的中小房企資金鏈斷裂風險。
內需方面，7月國內消費增長亦明顯回落。事實上，前兩個月支持消費的主要是汽車消費。隨着政策紅利的消失，消費壓力再度顯現。考慮到當前居民就業壓力加大、失業率提升，以及股市房市所帶來的財富效應減弱，下半年消費壓力巨大，而政策調控目前尚未見到對消費有顯著幫助。
外需方面，由於中國積極尋找出口替代，對歐洲和東南亞出口增長顯著，7月整體貿易增長有所修復。然而由於進口增長依然低迷，同比速度持續低於出口，衰退式貿易順差進一步擴大。考慮到近期人民幣匯率貶值，加之外圍的降息潮可能有助於促進外需恢復，接下來出口或有一定提升空間。但與此同時，貿易爭端的影響則會帶來不確定性和新的擾動。根據我們的測算，若美國繼續加征關稅，下半年國內出口可能仍有3個百分點左右的下滑空間，不過對gdp的影響有限。
從企業融資看，在專項債持續發力和科創板開板影響下，7月直接融資明顯回暖，但表內信貸環比大幅回落，導致整體社會融資出現較大下滑。受此影響，社融存量同比增速從6月的10.9%回落至10.7%。目前仍處於2019年的相對高位，但進一步走勢值得關注。在中美貿易曲折多變和風險明顯提升、企業避險情緒增加的環境下，企業信貸需求進一步下降，社融增長有繼續放慢趨勢，而與此同時，民營和小微企業則面臨愈發嚴峻的融資困難和信用風險。
貿易戰陰霾之下，人民幣匯率走勢崎嶇波動，並於8月破“7”。不過由於美國二季度起自身經濟下行風險增加，加之中美利差已高達130個基點，匯率仍有相對穩定的支撐基礎。但若下半年國內宏觀經濟顯著下滑，中美衝突繼續升級，悲觀情形下，不排除人民幣匯率有進一步走貶的可能。
二、私募股權投資
上半年，私募股權投資市場延續去年以來的下滑趨勢，不同統計分析機構包括投中、清科等都先後公布半年度報告。雖然由於統計原因具體金額差異較大，但是總體大幅下降趨勢一致。7月，股權募資端繼續下降，單月募資額再創年初以來新低。根據wind統計，1-7月募資完成額累計1273億元，較去年同期下降86%。私募股權整體募資環境寒冬依舊。科創板開板的交投活躍和對退出渠道拓寬，並未如市場年初普遍預期的那樣，立桿見影對私募股權市場募資局面實質利好。
投資端，7月新增投資完成額492.6億元，較前月多增42.2億元，較去年同期少增1401億元。由此影響，1-7月投資完成額同比下降57%。募資額與投資額之比已下降至不到10%的新低點，存量可投資資金（dry powder）正在進一步枯竭。投資方向上，7月進一步向信息技術集中，佔整體投資規模的64%，其次是金融、生物醫藥和工業。
退出端，7月國內私募股權投資市場實現退出17.8億元，環比前月大幅少退27.3億元，較去年同期少退105.5億元。1-7月累計實現投資退出1578.7億元，較去年同期增長164%。實際上，滬深股市ipo單月過會率已連續兩月出現高位回落,而中小創市凈率仍在2018年年中估值附近徘徊，可見當前上市退出的環境對私募股權市場並不全然有利。正因如此，退出壓力開始推動行業整合，產生大量併購退出需求。從投資退出的模式看，7月有60%的投資併購實現退出，而1-7月累計數據顯示併購退出仍是今年的主流方式。
此外，中美關係的新變化預計將對私募股權行業產生長期影響。即使後續中美談判能有階段性進展，也難以扭轉中美衝突與對抗加劇的整體態勢。在最壞情形下，不排除全球出現中美兩個標準和兩套體系的可能。我們預計中美衝突將拉鋸化和反覆化，對私募股權投資產生不利影響。不過危中有機，這也將為各個方面帶來新的發展機遇。具體而言，中美衝突：
對募資端：1）將加劇經濟和資本市場不確定性，市場信心受挫；2）或波及美元融資，美對華投資意願或明顯降低；3）對外開放和外商投資限制放寬，長遠便利海外募資。
對投資端：短期來看，1）將令經濟基本面承壓，企業盈利增長缺乏內生動力，優質投資標緊缺；2）使關鍵技術領域投資審查趨嚴，跨境投資難度加大；3）odi方式對外投資可能因外匯儲備壓力，審批不確定性有所增加；4）驅動投資人風險偏好降低，投資節奏有所放緩。而從長遠角度看：1）中國對外投資需求仍將持續增長；2）貿易戰將加快“進口替代”，相關投資機遇正應運而生；3）海外投資人仍將重視對華投資，而對外開放將激化行業競爭；4）一帶一路將孕育新的發展機遇。
最後，從退出端，雖然短期內投資標可能面臨經營業績下滑、償債能力減弱、估值波動、再融資前景惡化、上市周期延長，及不確定性因素增加等不利因素，但從長遠角度看，中美相互需求長期存在，中國產業升級難以阻遏，並且本土技術創新將得到政策更多扶持，相關企業上市退出將獲得便利。
new twists in external and internal developments as downward pressure further develops
1、the macro economy and finance
overall, july has not seen the same improvements in economic data as june did. housing measures were tightened while external volatilities increased. supply and demand sides both weakened again, putting more severe pressure on the real economy.
industrial output did not continue the upward trend from june. as manufacturing growth slowed down to a crawl, companies actively reduced inventory and only passively replenished stock, with no proactive motivation to build up inventory.
fixed assets investments did not continue june’s upward trend either. instead, they fell off a cliff. among those, real estate investments dropped significantly, while infrastructure investment growth slowed again. investments in the manufacturing sector, however, benefited from reduced taxes and fees, favorable industrial policies, as well as the results of import substitution strategy on certain high-tech manufacturing sectors, and kept its rebound from a low point. although this is a stage that structural reform of the economy must go through, manufacturing is a relatively small sector while the decrease in real estate investment puts considerable pressure on fixed asset investments as a whole. we are closely watching changes in real estate financing situation and in particular, the risk of capital chain rupture among mid-sized and small real estate enterprises in this process.
internally, consumer demand growth in july also slowed down. as a matter of fact, auto sales supported the consumer demand in the two previous months. as favorable policies ended, downward sales pressure resumed. considering the worsening employment situation and the disappearing effect on wealth from real estate and stock markets, second half consumer demand is facing enormous pressure, and policy adjustments have not had visible effect on consumption.
as china seems actively altering its trade destinations to eu and elsewhere, china's export achieved an obvious improvement. nevertheless at the same time, import growth was still muted and lagged behind export growth from the same period. as a result, the recessionary trade surplus further expanded. we believe the depreciation of the renminbi and the overseas interest rates cut could provide certain growth room for export moving forward. however, trade disputes will bring uncertainty and new volatility. based on our estimates, if the us continues increasing its tariff, second half export could slip further by 3 percentage points, with limited impact on gdp.
on the financing side, targeted local government debt issuance and sse star market boosted the direct financings in july, but the lendings on bank’s balance sheets plummeted, causing a significant drop in overall social financing. as a result, credit growth decreased from 10.9% in june to 10.7% in july. although still at a high level in 2019, the trend is concerning. as the us-china trade talks go through twists and turns, volatility increase and sentiments shift toward the risk-averse side. demand for financing is slowing down with similar consequence for actual lending growth. meanwhile, private and small enterprises face increased difficulties in financing and credit.
the renminbi went through a rough patch, with its exchange rate breaking through 7 as the trade war went on in august. however, as the us recession risk increased and the us-china interest spread at 130 basis points, the rmb exchange rate remains resilient. on the other hand, if the situation further worsens, under a pessimistic scenario, the exchange rate could be pressured again.
2、private equity investments
in the first half of 2019, private equity investments extended the downward trend from last year. institutions including china venture and zero2ipo group issued h1 reports with different figures because of their individual angles, but the significantly downward trend was clear. in july, equity fund raising decreased again, with the monthly figure hitting a new low for the year. wind data shows 127.3 billion raised from january to july, a 86% drop compared to the same period last year. the overall market is still chilling. sse start market has seen active trading and the addition of an exit option, but it has not been as an immediate boost as expected at the beginning of the year.
on the investment side, there were 49.36 billion new investments, a 4.22 billion increase from last month but a 140.1 billion decrease from the same period last year. as a result, january-july investments dropped 57% compared to same period last year. the difference between the amount raised and invested dropped to a new low point of less than 10%. dry powder is further drying up. direction-wise, investments in july further focused on information technology, which took up 64% of the total. finance, medtech, and industrials followed.
on the exit side, private equity sector saw 1.78 billion funds exiting in july, a 2.73 billion decrease from last month and 10.55 billion decrease from same period last year. total exits from january to july totaled 157.87 billion, a 164% increase from same period last year. in fact, ipo approval rates in shenzhen and shanghai markets have seen a decrease from their high points for two months in a row, and the market cap to net asset ratio in smaller and tech boards hovered around the mid-point of 2018. it is obvious that the climate for private equity exits was not all favorable. as a result, pressure to exit is driving sector integration, generating m&a demands as a path for exit. 60% of exits in july were through m&a while january-july data shows m&a has been the mainstream method for this year.
an additional note is that the new developments in us-china relations is going to have a long term effect on the private equity market. even if further trade talks produces positive results, the overall conflict between the two countries cannot be reversed. in the worst scenario, the possibility of a parallel system, led by us and china, cannot be ruled out. we expect the conflict to be a seesaw one that goes back and forth, with unfavorable effect on the private equity market. however, every crisis brings new opportunities. in particular,
on the fund raising side, it might 1) increase market volatility and erode confidence; 2) affect usd fund raising as the willingness of us firms to invest in china is weakened; 3) the loosened restrictions on foreign investments will make overseas fund raising easier.
on the investment side, the short term effects are: 1) fundamentals will be broadly under pressure. intrinsic profit generating capability of the companies will be lagging, leading to a decrease in quality investment targets; 2) regulations on key technological sector investments are tightened, making cross-border investment more difficult; 3) odi investments face more approval uncertainty with pressure from the shrinking foreign reserve; 4) investors become more risk-averse and slow down their pace. on the long term, 1) demand for outbound investment will continue to increase; 2) the trade war will force import substitutions, creating investment opportunities. 3) foreign investors still value china as an investment destination and competition could intensify as china opens up more; 4) the belt and road initiative can bring new development opportunities.
finally, from the exit end, investment targets might be facing slipping results, weakened capability for debt repayments, fluctuations in valuation, worse financing expectations, extended ipo schedule, as well as other uncertainties in the short term, over the long term, the need for us and china for each other will still exist and the upgrading of chinese industrial structure cannot be stopped. domestic innovation will be supported by government policies, paving a smoother way for companies to go public and investors to exit.
