“乘暖冬耕”供需再度上行，庚子慣性下行曙光待現
要點
總體看，11月國內經濟供需兩端均有所回暖，進一步增強了全年經濟增速6%以上的預期。生產端顯示，隨著季初效應減弱，在以汽車為首的製造業低位補庫存和基建擴張預期加強的雙重推動下，當月工業生產確實如期修復。不過細項資料亦說明，政策調節對工業生產的月度間透支或前置作用明顯，需求端始終偏弱。
當月固定資產投資完成狀況與國內消費市場表現則直接驗證了需求疲軟的判斷。雖然11月整體固定資產投資增長回升調，但是主要靠基建投資與房地產開發，前者反彈空間有限，後者下行趨勢明確。此外，“雙11”電商促銷確實帶動著可選消費的回升，但是若剔除通脹因素，國內消費需求持續疲軟，線上消費提振是對線下消費擠壓的表現，整體刺激效果一般。11月進出口雖然持續負增長，但是受益於當月進口增長大幅回檔，增速由負轉正的影響，增速修復明顯。
相應地，當月社融增長實現同比多增。其中作為主要推動項，表內貸款高增受主要定向降准、mlf、逆回購利率和lpr利率下調，以及銀行被要求加大對實體經濟信貸支援的影響。不過結構顯示，企業中長期貸款一部分來自於城投平臺推進隱性債務置換的需求，實體經濟的真實需求並未明顯回暖。外匯方面，11月離岸人民幣兌美元即期匯率趨穩於“7”，12月受貿易談判影響，走勢呈現樂觀上行。
展望2020年，國內經濟增速下行已是市場共識，但無需過度悲觀。作為關鍵年份，逆週期調節將持續發揮作用。我們預計政策層將圍繞著：1）保障基建投資平穩增長；2）弱化房地產融資與交易監管力度，為地產投資下行穩降落鋪墊；3）通過產業政策指引，國有資本新佈局穩定製造業投資 ；4）通過汽車升級、城市老舊改造需求和地產竣工週期相關消費促進整體消費“升級”，通過關注下沉市場，挖掘國內需求潛力；5）財政政策和貨幣政策合理調節，對居民消費、居民就業、地方產業、區域經濟發展等形成合力。以上五個維度確保經濟與國民收入增長實現翻番目標，即2020年經濟增長需要維持5.4%以上。具體而言：
從生產端看，儘管關稅由升轉降將有助於外需增長修復，但是不改國內與海外經濟基本面的頹勢，生產下行壓力依舊存在。所謂“新庫存週期”開啟，言之尚早。在需求端不出現實質性改善的前提下，僅靠“逆週期”調節，或者供給側約束等均不可持續。2020年雖然基建投資能帶來一定生產需求，但是製造業生產仍處於去庫存與補庫存的交替階段，整體難言企穩。預計2020全年生產增速維持5-5.5%區間內。
從投資端看，製造業投資在產業政策指引，減稅降費和2019年低基數效應的共同推動下，或會出現暫時性回暖，但是由於製造業利潤持續負增長，投資內生動力不足，整體增速低位求穩。受土地投資放緩與施工投資處於竣工階段等影響，房地產投資或將保持一定韌性，但是回落趨勢不可避免，整體增速仍有韌性，擔任托底作用。基建投資儘管可以用作逆週期調節，但是預計增幅有限，這主要是因為其一地方政府財政壓力較大，可能難以大幅增加基建投入；其二“新基建”相對于傳統基建，對資金的需求相對較少。綜合看，預計明年整體固定資產投資增速或較今年略微上行，全年增速將維持在5.4-5.8%區間。
從需求端看，國內方面，儘管新業態，新商業模式、先進技術應用和消費貸款等支援會刺激新消費需求，但是居民實際收入增長與財富效應預期（股市與樓市）是當前最大的束縛。明年實際消費增長取決於三方面：居民就業、cpi擠壓以及消費穩增長政策。預計2020全年居民消費增速維持在7.5-8%區間。海外方面，由於目前中美已達成第一階段協定，預計2020年進出口貿易將較2019年有所修復，全球貿易不確定性將大幅緩和。預計2020年出口同比增長3-4%，進口增幅或略高於出口，導致衰退式貿易順差收窄，2020年淨出口對gdp的拉動貢獻小於2019年。
從融資端看，貨幣政策將持續“靈活適度”以確保流動性合理充裕，預計社會融資規模增長仍與經濟增速相適應，全年增幅5.8-6%左右。針對民營小微企業的融資成本將進一步降低。匯率方面，人民幣兌美元仍有升值基礎。隨著人民幣匯率形成機制改革在年內連續打破人們“剛兌”預期，開始逐步反映市場真正的供求關係，我國外匯儲備壓力將相應減輕，保持基本穩定。
從政策面看，2020年金融工作重心有所轉移，金融去杠杆的任務暫告一段落。同時，監管層對地產調控政策將相對溫和，設立“穩地價、穩房價、穩預期”的管理目標。此外，政策層進一步強調全面改革，預計2020年經濟體制改革將側重於：1）國有資本佈局優化調整；2）財稅體制改革；3）資本市場，包括推進創業板和新三板改革；4）加快對外開放。隨著各項改革有序推進，制度紅利的釋放或助力經濟回暖。
結合上述一系列判斷，2020年gdp增速將維持在5.8%左右。
summary
domestic supply and demand warmed up in november overall, making it more likely that the whole year growth rate will be above 6%. on the supply side, as the beginning-of-season effect wore off, the industrial manufacturing sector recovered as expected, benefiting from inventory replenishment in the automobile industry and expectations of infrastructure expansion. microdata showed, however, that policy adjustment played an important role in industrial output volume’s shifting between different months, while the demand was still weak.
fixed assets investment within the month and domestic consumer market performance further confirmed the weak demand. although november fixed asset investment growth rate recovered overall, it was mainly due to infrastructure and real estate development, the former of which had limited space for rebounding, while the latter is clearly showing a downward trend. in addition, the 11-11 online sales event pushed up the growth in consumer discretionary sector; but once inflation was adjusted for, domestic demand was consistently weak. online consumption growth is a squeeze on offline sales. overall, the effect is not encouraging. export and import volumes overall saw a decline in november, but benefited from the reversal of import growth from negative to positive, showing a clear recovering trend.
correspondingly, the growth of afre(aggregate financing to the real economy) in november realized a year-on-year increase. as one of the main drivers, bank’s loans were majorly affected by targeted rrr cuts, mlf, the reverse repurchase rates and lpr interest rate cuts, and political guidance to banks for supporting real economy. however afre structure change indicated that, majority of the long-term lending money has flowed to local government-backed investment units, instead of smes. the demand of total enterprises’ financing remains weak. in terms of exchange rates, the spot exchange rate of the offshore rmb against the us dollar stabilized at "7" in november, and in december, affected by trade negotiations, the trend kept optimistic.
as we look to 2020, slowing of domestic economic growth has become a consensus in the markets, but there is no need to despair. during this turning point of a year, counter-cyclical adjustments will continue to play its role. we expect the policies will be centered on: 1) ensuring smooth growth of infrastructure investment; 2) weakening regulatory pressure of real estate and financing, paving the way for a smooth landing of real estate investments; 3) stabilizing manufacturing investments through state-owned capital and policy guidance; 4) upgrading consumption through the upgrade of automobiles, revamping of urban infrastructure, and stimulating peripheral consumption around finished real estate. tier-3 and below urban markets will be the focus to tap domestic demand potential; 5) careful combination of fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption, employment, local economies, and regional developments. the goal of the above 5 measures is to ensure the doubling of economic and national income from 2010, which means 2020 economic growth rate will need to be above 5.4%. as to details:
on the supply side, although tariffs reversed their rising trend which would help improve foreign demand growth, they will not change the declining domestic and foreign fundamentals. downward pressure will still persist. it is still too early to declare the beginning of a new inventory cycle. as long as there is no substantive improvement in demand, neither the counter cyclical adjustments nor the supply-side restrictions will be sustainable. infrastructure investment can bring some demand to the manufacturing sector in 2020, but the sector is still at the stage between destocking and restocking, where there is no stability to speak of. we maintain our forecast of 5-5.5% growth in manufacturing.
on the investment end, manufacturing investment might temporarily recover because of industrial policy, tax reduction, as well as the low 2019 basis, but as the sector’s declining profits mute investment demand, overall growth will linger at a low level. real estate investment might be resilient to a degree because of the slowing land sales and trailing off of construction spending, and the sector in total is a mainstay of the economy, but its decline is inevitable. although infrastructure investment is a major tool for counter-cyclical adjustments, it is facing its own issues. different regional governments, bound by lack of funding, carry out the adjustment measures to various degrees, and funding needs from the “new infrastructure” are declining. based on the above, infrastructure investment is not expected to post a significant bounce next year, but will rather hover at a low growth level. all told, fixed assets investment growth could grow at a slightly higher rate than this year. the overall annual growth rate is expected to be between 5.4-5.8%.
on the demand side, despite the domestic stimuli coming from new business models, new tech applications and fintech, slow growth in real income of the residents and expected wealth from stock markets and real estate are the most difficult hindrances. real consumption growth in 2020 will depend on these three factors: employment and labor market, cpi squeeze, and policies for stable consumption growth. we expect on-shore whole year consumption growth rate for 2020 to be between 7.5-8%. off shore, as the phase 1 agreement has been reached between us and china, export and import trade in 2020 is expected to recover from 2019, and global trade uncertainties are expected to ease significantly. export in 2020 is expected to grow by 3-4%, while import growth might be even higher. as a result, the recessionary surplus will narrow. contribution to gdp from 2020 net export is expected to be smaller than that of 2019.
on the financing side, the monetary policy of 2020 will keep performing “flexible and appropriate” to ensure liquidity being reasonable and adequate. we expect the afre will follow the real economic growth rate, with an annual increase of about 5.8-6%. the financing cost for sme will be further cut. in terms of exchange rates, there is still room for rmb to appreciate against the usd. following the exchange mechanism reform, the market began to gradually reflect the real supply-demand relationship of the market and be avoid of misleading of the “7” bail-out from government. relatively, the pressure on china's foreign exchange reserves will reduce accordingly and be stable in next year.
on the policy side, the focus of finance in 2020 will be different. the deleveraging will pause for the time being, while regulatory pressure on real estate control will ease with the goal of “stable land price, stable housing price, stable expectations”. in addition, further reform policies will be announced. 2020 systematic economic reform is expected to focus on: 1) optimization of state-owned capital outlay; 2) fiscal and tax system reform; 3) capital markets, including further second-board and neeq reforms; 4) further opening up to foreign enterprises. as the reform measures fall in place, dividends from system optimization could boost the economy.
based on above analysis, we expect 2020 gdp growth rate to be around 5.8%.
