“乘暖冬耕”供需再度上行，庚子惯性下行曙光待现
要点
总体看，11月国内经济供需两端均有所回暖，进一步增强了全年经济增速6%以上的预期。生产端显示，随着季初效应减弱，在以汽车为首的制造业低位补库存和基建扩张预期加强的双重推动下，当月工业生产确实如期修复。不过细项数据亦说明，政策调节对工业生产的月度间透支或前置作用明显，需求端始终偏弱。
当月固定资产投资完成状况与国内消费市场表现则直接验证了需求疲软的判断。虽然11月整体固定资产投资增长回升调，但是主要靠基建投资与房地产开发，前者反弹空间有限，后者下行趋势明确。此外，“双11”电商促销确实带动着可选消费的回升，但是若剔除通胀因素，国内消费需求持续疲软，线上消费提振是对线下消费挤压的表现，整体刺激效果一般。11月进出口虽然持续负增长，但是受益于当月进口增长大幅回调，增速由负转正的影响，增速修复明显。
相应地，当月社融增长实现同比多增。其中作为主要推动项，表内贷款高增受主要定向降准、mlf、逆回购利率和lpr利率下调，以及银行被要求加大对实体经济信贷支持的影响。不过结构显示，企业中长期贷款一部分来自于城投平台推进隐性债务置换的需求，实体经济的真实需求并未明显回暖。外汇方面，11月离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率趋稳于“7”，12月受贸易谈判影响，走势呈现乐观上行。
展望2020年，国内经济增速下行已是市场共识，但无需过度悲观。作为关键年份，逆周期调节将持续发挥作用。我们预计政策层将围绕着：1）保障基建投资平稳增长；2）弱化房地产融资与交易监管力度，为地产投资下行稳降落铺垫；3）通过产业政策指引，国有资本新布局稳定制造业投资 ；4）通过汽车升级、城市老旧改造需求和地产竣工周期相关消费促进整体消费“升级”，通过关注下沉市场，挖掘国内需求潜力；5）财政政策和货币政策合理调节，对居民消费、居民就业、地方产业、区域经济发展等形成合力。以上五个维度确保经济与国民收入增长实现翻番目标，即2020年经济增长需要维持5.4%以上。具体而言：
从生产端看，尽管关税由升转降将有助于外需增长修复，但是不改国内与海外经济基本面的颓势，生产下行压力依旧存在。所谓“新库存周期”开启，言之尚早。在需求端不出现实质性改善的前提下，仅靠“逆周期”调节，或者供给侧约束等均不可持续。2020年虽然基建投资能带来一定生产需求，但是制造业生产仍处于去库存与补库存的交替阶段，整体难言企稳。预计2020全年生产增速维持5-5.5%区间内。
从投资端看，制造业投资在产业政策指引，减税降费和2019年低基数效应的共同推动下，或会出现暂时性回暖，但是由于制造业利润持续负增长，投资内生动力不足，整体增速低位求稳。受土地投资放缓与施工投资处于竣工阶段等影响，房地产投资或将保持一定韧性，但是回落趋势不可避免，整体增速仍有韧性，担任托底作用。基建投资尽管可以用作逆周期调节，但是预计增幅有限，这主要是因为其一地方政府财政压力较大，可能难以大幅增加基建投入；其二“新基建”相对于传统基建，对资金的需求相对较少。综合看，预计明年整体固定资产投资增速或较今年略微上行，全年增速将维持在5.4-5.8%区间。
从需求端看，国内方面，尽管新业态，新商业模式、先进技术应用和消费贷款等支持会刺激新消费需求，但是居民实际收入增长与财富效应预期（股市与楼市）是当前最大的束缚。明年实际消费增长取决于三方面：居民就业、cpi挤压以及消费稳增长政策。预计2020全年居民消费增速维持在7.5-8%区间。海外方面，由于目前中美已达成第一阶段协议，预计2020年进出口贸易将较2019年有所修复，全球贸易不确定性将大幅缓和。预计2020年出口同比增长3-4%，进口增幅或略高于出口，导致衰退式贸易顺差收窄，2020年净出口对gdp的拉动贡献小于2019年。
从融资端看，货币政策将持续“灵活适度”以确保流动性合理充裕，预计社会融资规模增长仍与经济增速相适应，全年增幅5.8-6%左右。针对民营小微企业的融资成本将进一步降低。汇率方面，人民币兑美元仍有升值基础。随着人民币汇率形成机制改革在年内连续打破人们“刚兑”预期，开始逐步反映市场真正的供求关系，我国外汇储备压力将相应减轻，保持基本稳定。
从政策面看，2020年金融工作重心有所转移，金融去杠杆的任务暂告一段落。同时，监管层对地产调控政策将相对温和，设立“稳地价、稳房价、稳预期”的管理目标。此外，政策层进一步强调全面改革，预计2020年经济体制改革将侧重于：1）国有资本布局优化调整；2）财税体制改革；3）资本市场，包括推进创业板和新三板改革；4）加快对外开放。随着各项改革有序推进，制度红利的释放或助力经济回暖。
结合上述一系列判断，2020年gdp增速将维持在5.8%左右。
summary
domestic supply and demand warmed up in november overall, making it more likely that the whole year growth rate will be above 6%. on the supply side, as the beginning-of-season effect wore off, the industrial manufacturing sector recovered as expected, benefiting from inventory replenishment in the automobile industry and expectations of infrastructure expansion. microdata showed, however, that policy adjustment played an important role in industrial output volume’s shifting between different months, while the demand was still weak.
fixed assets investment within the month and domestic consumer market performance further confirmed the weak demand. although november fixed asset investment growth rate recovered overall, it was mainly due to infrastructure and real estate development, the former of which had limited space for rebounding, while the latter is clearly showing a downward trend. in addition, the 11-11 online sales event pushed up the growth in consumer discretionary sector; but once inflation was adjusted for, domestic demand was consistently weak. online consumption growth is a squeeze on offline sales. overall, the effect is not encouraging. export and import volumes overall saw a decline in november, but benefited from the reversal of import growth from negative to positive, showing a clear recovering trend.
correspondingly, the growth of afre(aggregate financing to the real economy) in november realized a year-on-year increase. as one of the main drivers, bank’s loans were majorly affected by targeted rrr cuts, mlf, the reverse repurchase rates and lpr interest rate cuts, and political guidance to banks for supporting real economy. however afre structure change indicated that, majority of the long-term lending money has flowed to local government-backed investment units, instead of smes. the demand of total enterprises’ financing remains weak. in terms of exchange rates, the spot exchange rate of the offshore rmb against the us dollar stabilized at "7" in november, and in december, affected by trade negotiations, the trend kept optimistic.
as we look to 2020, slowing of domestic economic growth has become a consensus in the markets, but there is no need to despair. during this turning point of a year, counter-cyclical adjustments will continue to play its role. we expect the policies will be centered on: 1) ensuring smooth growth of infrastructure investment; 2) weakening regulatory pressure of real estate and financing, paving the way for a smooth landing of real estate investments; 3) stabilizing manufacturing investments through state-owned capital and policy guidance; 4) upgrading consumption through the upgrade of automobiles, revamping of urban infrastructure, and stimulating peripheral consumption around finished real estate. tier-3 and below urban markets will be the focus to tap domestic demand potential; 5) careful combination of fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption, employment, local economies, and regional developments. the goal of the above 5 measures is to ensure the doubling of economic and national income from 2010, which means 2020 economic growth rate will need to be above 5.4%. as to details:
on the supply side, although tariffs reversed their rising trend which would help improve foreign demand growth, they will not change the declining domestic and foreign fundamentals. downward pressure will still persist. it is still too early to declare the beginning of a new inventory cycle. as long as there is no substantive improvement in demand, neither the counter cyclical adjustments nor the supply-side restrictions will be sustainable. infrastructure investment can bring some demand to the manufacturing sector in 2020, but the sector is still at the stage between destocking and restocking, where there is no stability to speak of. we maintain our forecast of 5-5.5% growth in manufacturing.
on the investment end, manufacturing investment might temporarily recover because of industrial policy, tax reduction, as well as the low 2019 basis, but as the sector’s declining profits mute investment demand, overall growth will linger at a low level. real estate investment might be resilient to a degree because of the slowing land sales and trailing off of construction spending, and the sector in total is a mainstay of the economy, but its decline is inevitable. although infrastructure investment is a major tool for counter-cyclical adjustments, it is facing its own issues. different regional governments, bound by lack of funding, carry out the adjustment measures to various degrees, and funding needs from the “new infrastructure” are declining. based on the above, infrastructure investment is not expected to post a significant bounce next year, but will rather hover at a low growth level. all told, fixed assets investment growth could grow at a slightly higher rate than this year. the overall annual growth rate is expected to be between 5.4-5.8%.
on the demand side, despite the domestic stimuli coming from new business models, new tech applications and fintech, slow growth in real income of the residents and expected wealth from stock markets and real estate are the most difficult hindrances. real consumption growth in 2020 will depend on these three factors: employment and labor market, cpi squeeze, and policies for stable consumption growth. we expect on-shore whole year consumption growth rate for 2020 to be between 7.5-8%. off shore, as the phase 1 agreement has been reached between us and china, export and import trade in 2020 is expected to recover from 2019, and global trade uncertainties are expected to ease significantly. export in 2020 is expected to grow by 3-4%, while import growth might be even higher. as a result, the recessionary surplus will narrow. contribution to gdp from 2020 net export is expected to be smaller than that of 2019.
on the financing side, the monetary policy of 2020 will keep performing “flexible and appropriate” to ensure liquidity being reasonable and adequate. we expect the afre will follow the real economic growth rate, with an annual increase of about 5.8-6%. the financing cost for sme will be further cut. in terms of exchange rates, there is still room for rmb to appreciate against the usd. following the exchange mechanism reform, the market began to gradually reflect the real supply-demand relationship of the market and be avoid of misleading of the “7” bail-out from government. relatively, the pressure on china's foreign exchange reserves will reduce accordingly and be stable in next year.
on the policy side, the focus of finance in 2020 will be different. the deleveraging will pause for the time being, while regulatory pressure on real estate control will ease with the goal of “stable land price, stable housing price, stable expectations”. in addition, further reform policies will be announced. 2020 systematic economic reform is expected to focus on: 1) optimization of state-owned capital outlay; 2) fiscal and tax system reform; 3) capital markets, including further second-board and neeq reforms; 4) further opening up to foreign enterprises. as the reform measures fall in place, dividends from system optimization could boost the economy.
based on above analysis, we expect 2020 gdp growth rate to be around 5.8%.
