经济基本面持续走弱，政策层再次强调“六稳”
一、宏观经济和金融
8月经济数据延续7月以来的下行趋势。基建投资的小幅回暖无法对冲终端需求和企业生产的疲弱，经济下行压力进一步加大。
当月工业增加值大幅回落，增速再创历史新低。内需持续偏弱叠加企业主动去库存是工业生产乏力的主要原因。再者，8月美方加征关税，间接影响部分工业生产。从生产商预期看，短期内企业，尤其是中小企业生产积极仍然低迷，或将拖累三季度第二产业gdp增速进一步下滑。
制造业投资在经历了前三个月的小幅恢复后出现回落，导致当月固定资产投资增速同比持续下降。不过，在基建投资的支撑下降幅较前月有所收窄。考虑到逆周期政策调节的持续加码，制造业投资有望再度回升。与此同时，基建投资的回暖有望持续。房地产开发投资下滑趋势不变，但失控可能性较低。
内需方面，国五去库存效应消退、加上前期需求透支，汽车销售降幅进一步扩大，拖累8月消费增速再度走弱。往后看，就业市场和地产大周期的下行，决定了居民收入和财富增长预期均放缓，下半年消费增速仍趋于下行。
外需方面，中美贸易冲突的影响愈加严重，衰退式贸易顺差持续扩大，同时加工贸易外移趋势进一步凸显。往后看，即使中美贸易对峙恢复理性，在当前全球经济下行的环境下，出口进一步下滑仍不可避免。
从企业融资看，8月社融持平于去年同期，环比7月则增长明显。人民币贷款净增量改善企稳，表外未贴现票据积极增长，直接融资受制于地方债全年额度限制及发行错峰，对社融贡献减弱。总体看，8月社融增速再度实现企稳，存量同比持平于10.7%。此外，8月企业中长期信贷同比大幅增长，规模和占比双升反映信贷结构在政策强力支持和基建项目加速落地下，出现久违修复。虽然小微民企信用分层现象依然顽固，实体产业需求仍存在较大不确定性。考虑到国常会明确提出下达明年专项债部分新增额度，确保明年年初使用见效，预计2020年地方专项债部分额度有一定概率将在年内发行。配合银行方面的信贷投入，基建投资有望四季度再度发力，托底经济。
受贸易冲突预期激化的影响，8月人民币汇率大幅走贬破7，一度达到7.19的高点。展望后市，由于美国经济下行风险扩大，9月份于年内第二度降息，加之中美10年期国债利差高达150个基点，人民币兑美元汇率进一步贬值的空间有限。
总体看，8月经济数据暴露更多增长压力。正因如此，9月4日国务院常务会议上，决策层再次表态将部署精准施策加大力度做好“六稳”工作，在财政上加快专项债的发行，以带动有效投资支持补短板扩内需；在货币上运用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具，降低实体经济融资成本；此外，在财政过紧日子的同时，还推动进一步减税降费。这些政策的推出一方面反映出实体经济面临的严峻形势，另一方面也显示了政策层的托底意愿，有利于边际提升信心恢复。
往后看，有四方面值得关注：第一，基建投资在资金与政策的刺激下，可望进一步发力。虽然难见反弹，但是四季度经济不会失速下滑；第二，房地产韧性强劲，虽然房地产监管的主基调仍上“房住不炒”，但是9月以来的政策喊话也意味着，房地产投资的托底作用仍在，存在灵活调整的空间；第三，宽信用政策持续成效，8月企业中长期贷款在占比和绝对额均呈现回升态势，有利于后续实体经济的企稳回升；第四，临近年末，中美贸易升级风险降低，对两国资本市场信心均有所增强。
局部房企的资金紧缺、地方型中小银行的信贷危机，以及中美关系再度恶化等问题是我们持续关注的风险点。
二、私募股权投资
行业募资现状如临寒冬。人民币基金募资额和募集完成速度均明显下降。从个人客户角度看，美元基金的投资者相对成熟，接受“盲投”；而人民币高净值客户则往往要要穿透看项目。穿透项目对资产管理公司兼有利弊。利在于投资者自担其责；弊在于大幅增加了资管公司获得管理资产和对应管理费收入的难度。
从机构客户角度看，民企资金极度紧张，有限的资金更多向头部机构集中，而若不是投向头部机构，则要求穿透项目。国企资金相对宽裕，但更加要求以co-gp形式乃至自行直投。背后的原因在于：1）过去几年私募股权机构大都未能为投资人创造良好的收益；2）国内投资市场尚不规范，赚钱不一定靠专业，资方凑一个团队也未必不能获得不亚于专业投资团队的收益。
从地方政府角度看，向其募资的难度也已大幅上升，主要面临四个问题：1）出资比例降低。以往地方政府出资比例达40-50%，现在普遍降到30%；2）返投比例等各方面要求较多；3）地方政府普遍要求先拿项目而不肯“盲投”；4）希望参与管理，甚至也要求做gp。而即使允诺出资，新官不理旧账，承诺资金不到位的现象也屡屡发生。
背后的原因则在于：1）经过几轮举债，现在地方政府也缺钱；2）发达地区的地方政府已被机构反复犁了好几遍地，深谙行业门道，口袋捂得比以前紧；3）地方政府的主要目的是为引进产业，而在和私募股权机构前些年的合作中，项目往往没有投出去，大量资金趴在账上，投资体验不好；4）现在私募行业整体募资困难，大小机构都有求于地方政府资金。
8月美国三大上市资产管理机构黑石、凯雷和kkr陆续发布了半年报。财务数据显示三家机构业绩增长颇为良好，主要受益于美股已从2018年末的阶段性的低谷大幅回暖，募资规模继续高增。不过往后看，考虑到上半年全球经济增长已显疲态，ipo退出和并购交易正趋于低迷，三大资管机构对私募股权行业下一阶段的退出和回报率前景均表忧虑。
the macro economy and finance
overall, august economic numbers continued the downward trend of july. the small increase in infrastructure investment cannot offset the weakness in terminal demand and enterprise production. the downward pressure further gains strength on the economy.
in august, industrial value-added fell back significantly, hitting a record low growth speed in history. the main reason behind the weak industrial output is a combination of the continuously weak domestic demand and active destocking by the companies. in addition, new tariffs imposed by the us indirectly affected the industrial production. from the manufacturer’s perspective, in the short term, businesses (especially the small businesses) will still lack motivation to produce, which could create a drag on the third quarter industrial output, and further slow down the gdp growth.
investment in the manufacturing sector shrank in august after three months of recovery, causing the growth of fixed assets investment to drop compared to same period last year, although the drop was smaller than those in previous months, thanks to investments in infrastructure. considering the increasingly pronounced counter-cyclical policy support, investment in the manufacturing sector is likely to rise again. at the same time, infrastructure investment is likely to continue the upward trend. investment in the real estate sector stayed on the downward course but remained controllable.
on the domestic demand side, the effect of inventory clearance of the china 5 standard automobiles is fading. weak demand caused auto sales to decrease further and dragging down the august consumer spending growth. looking ahead, the downward trend in the job market and real estate sector will definitively dampen residents’ income and wealth growth. second half consumption growth is expected to slow.
externally, the effect of us-china trade friction became more pronounced. recessionary surplus further expanded while the exodus of processing trade was increasingly obvious. on the long term, even if cooler heads prevail in us-china talks, export will still inevitably slip in the slowing global economy.
corporate financing in august was level compared to the same period last year but an obvious increase compared to july. renminbi loans increased steadily, while the amount of off-the-books undiscounted bills posted a positive growth. direct lending, however, contributed less to the total amount of financing as it was limited by regional annual quotas and timing of issuance. overall, august private financing growth steadied again at 10.7%, level compared to the same period last year. on the other hand, mid- and long-term loans to companies grew significantly in august compared to same period last year, both in terms of size and percentage share, reflecting a long-awaited recovery fueled by strong policy support and quickened infrastructure investment. small and micro private enterprises still faced a credit barrier stubbornly against them and real economy demand was still uncertain. considering that the state council executive meeting had definitively allocated new quotas for targeted new debts for next year with a guarantee that it would be used at the beginning of the year, we estimate that part of the new 2020 regional debts will be issued before the end of this year. acting in accordance with bank credits, infrastructure investments are expected to provide powerful support in the fourth quarter to boost the economy.
as a result of the intensification of trade war expectations, the renminbi exchange rate in august fell to a level above 7, reaching a high point of 7.19. over a longer term, as us economic increasingly risk going into a recession, a second rate cut is expected in september. with the 10-year national debt interest differential at 150 basis points, the room for further rmb depreciation is limited.
on a macro level, august data indicated further pressure against economic growth. the decision makers on national council executive meeting on september 4th reiterated their plan to apply policies on specific targets and implement the “six stablizations” plan. fiscally, targeted loans will be issued at a faster pace to boost effective investments, overcome certain weaknesses, and push up domestic demand. monetarily, general and targeted required reserve ratio cuts will be used to lower financing costs of the real economy. while the governmental fiscal budget is tight, taxes and fees will still be lowered. these policies reflect both the serious situation that the real economy is facing and the determination of the government to support the economy. they are positive news for boosting confidence.
looking ahead, four pieces of news are notable. one, infrastructure investments will further boost the economy with favorable credit and policy support. although a rebound is not expected, fourth quarter would not likely see a significant slip. two, the real estate sector is resilient. although the regulatory agencies still try to suppress speculation, policy announcements since september indicate that real estate sector is still a stalwart of the economy and there is room for adjustments. three, generous credit policies continue to be effective as august mid- and long-term loans to enterprises rose both in size and percentage share, a favorable news to future recovery of the real economy. fourth, as the year closes, further escalation of us-china trade war becomes less likely, boosting capital market confidence in both countries.
lack of credit among certain real estate firms, credit crises of regional small banks, and further deterioration of us-china relationships are risk factors we focus on.
private equity investments
fund raising is in a chilling phase. renminbi fund raising is slowing in both amount and closing speed. from the point of view of an individual investor, usd fund investors are relatively mature and more receptive to blind investing. high networth renminbi investors tend to perform thorough researches on the projects. the researches are a two-edged sword in that they alleviate the pressure on the asset managers, but they make it much more difficult for asset managers to acquire assets and charge fees.
from an institutional point of view, many private enterprises face financial difficulties while the limited funds concentrate on top companies. thorough researches are demanded for investments not into the top firms. state owned companies have a much easier time, but they increasingly ask for co-gp status or even direct management by themselves. the reason behind it is a. private equity institutions have not produced good returns for investors; b. irregularities still abound in domestic capital markets and professionals are not necessarily better money managers. investors’ own teams do not fair much worse than professional money managers.
the difficulty to raise funds from local governments also increased significantly as four issues present themselves in many cases. 1. local governments’ funding rates are dropping to around 30% from 40%-50%. 2. specific requirements for use of funds are increasing. 3. no funding without project details. local governments are demanding specific projects being acquired before investing, rather than funding first. 4. governments are participating in management and even asking to be gps. even with promised funding, newly appointed official often do not honor predecessors’ promises. reneges happen frequently. the reasons are: 1. local governments are facing tight budgets after several rounds of debt issuance. 2. developed area governments have been the target of pe institutions repeatedly. they have developed an understanding of the sector and are less willing to open their pocket books. 3. local governments aim to introduce industry into the region. however during previous cooperation with pe firms, funds were not always deployed but rather sat in the bank accounts, leaving a bad taste in the investors’ mouths. 4. as the pe sector experiences difficulties, more institutions are seeking funding from governments.
in august, blackstone, carlyle, and kkr, the three giants of us listed asset managers, issued their half year reports. financial figures show a good growth picture as us equities rebounded from the low of december 2018 and fund raising managed to reach a new height. however looking further into the future, considering that the first half global economy has shown signs of slowdown and ipo and m&a transactions are becoming more difficult, all of the three firms expressed concerns as to the future of private equity exits and returns in the next phase.
