經濟基本面持續走弱，政策層再次強調“六穩”
一、宏觀經濟和金融
8月經濟資料延續7月以來的下行趨勢。基建投資的小幅回暖無法對沖終端需求和企業生產的疲弱，經濟下行壓力進一步加大。
當月工業增加值大幅回落，增速再創歷史新低。內需持續偏弱疊加企業主動去庫存是工業生產乏力的主要原因。再者，8月美方加征關稅，間接影響部分工業生產。從生產商預期看，短期內企業，尤其是中小企業生產積極仍然低迷，或將拖累三季度第二產業gdp增速進一步下滑。
製造業投資在經歷了前三個月的小幅恢復後出現回落，導致當月固定資產投資增速同比持續下降。不過，在基建投資的支撐下降幅較前月有所收窄。考慮到逆週期政策調節的持續加碼，製造業投資有望再度回升。與此同時，基建投資的回暖有望持續。房地產開發投資下滑趨勢不變，但失控可能性較低。
內需方面，國五去庫存效應消退、加上前期需求透支，汽車銷售降幅進一步擴大，拖累8月消費增速再度走弱。往後看，就業市場和地產大週期的下行，決定了居民收入和財富增長預期均放緩，下半年消費增速仍趨於下行。
外需方面，中美貿易衝突的影響愈加嚴重，衰退式貿易順差持續擴大，同時加工貿易外移趨勢進一步凸顯。往後看，即使中美貿易對峙恢復理性，在當前全球經濟下行的環境下，出口進一步下滑仍不可避免。
從企業融資看，8月社融持平於去年同期，環比7月則增長明顯。人民幣貸款淨增量改善企穩，表外未貼現票據積極增長，直接融資受制於地方債全年額度限制及發行錯峰，對社融貢獻減弱。總體看，8月社融增速再度實現企穩，存量同比持平於10.7%。此外，8月企業中長期信貸同比大幅增長，規模和占比雙升反映信貸結構在政策強力支援和基建專案加速落地下，出現久違修復。雖然小微民企信用分層現象依然頑固，實體產業需求仍存在較大不確定性。考慮到國常會明確提出下達明年專項債部分新增額度，確保明年年初使用見效，預計2020年地方專項債部分額度有一定概率將在年內發行。配合銀行方面的信貸投入，基建投資有望四季度再度發力，托底經濟。
受貿易衝突預期激化的影響，8月人民幣匯率大幅走貶破7，一度達到7.19的高點。展望後市，由於美國經濟下行風險擴大，9月份於年內第二度降息，加之中美10年期國債利差高達150個基點，人民幣兌美元匯率進一步貶值的空間有限。
總體看，8月經濟資料暴露更多增長壓力。正因如此，9月4日國務院常務會議上，決策層再次表態將部署精准施策加大力度做好“六穩”工作，在財政上加快專項債的發行，以帶動有效投資支持補短板擴內需；在貨幣上運用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具，降低實體經濟融資成本；此外，在財政過緊日子的同時，還推動進一步減稅降費。這些政策的推出一方面反映出實體經濟面臨的嚴峻形勢，另一方面也顯示了政策層的托底意願，有利於邊際提升信心恢復。
往後看，有四方面值得關注：第一，基建投資在資金與政策的刺激下，可望進一步發力。雖然難見反彈，但是四季度經濟不會失速下滑；第二，房地產韌性強勁，雖然房地產監管的主基調仍上“房住不炒”，但是9月以來的政策喊話也意味著，房地產投資的托底作用仍在，存在靈活調整的空間；第三，寬信用政策持續成效，8月企業中長期貸款在占比和絕對額均呈現回升態勢，有利於後續實體經濟的企穩回升；第四，臨近年末，中美貿易升級風險降低，對兩國資本市場信心均有所增強。
局部房企的資金緊缺、地方型中小銀行的信貸危機，以及中美關係再度惡化等問題是我們持續關注的風險點。
二、私募股權投資
行業募資現狀如臨寒冬。人民幣基金募資額和募集完成速度均明顯下降。從個人客戶角度看，美元基金的投資者相對成熟，接受“盲投”；而人民幣高淨值客戶則往往要要穿透看項目。穿透專案對資產管理公司兼有利弊。利在於投資者自擔其責；弊在於大幅增加了資管公司獲得管理資產和對應管理費收入的難度。
從機構客戶角度看，民企資金極度緊張，有限的資金更多向頭部機構集中，而若不是投向頭部機構，則要求穿透專案。國企資金相對寬裕，但更加要求以co-gp形式乃至自行直投。背後的原因在於：1）過去幾年私募股權機構大都未能為投資人創造良好的收益；2）國內投資市場尚不規範，賺錢不一定靠專業，資方湊一個團隊也未必不能獲得不亞於專業投資團隊的收益。
從地方政府角度看，向其募資的難度也已大幅上升，主要面臨四個問題：1）出資比例降低。以往地方政府出資比例達40-50%，現在普遍降到30%；2）返投比例等各方面要求較多；3）地方政府普遍要求先拿專案而不肯“盲投”；4）希望參與管理，甚至也要求做gp。而即使允諾出資，新官不理舊賬，承諾資金不到位的現象也屢屢發生。
背後的原因則在於：1）經過幾輪舉債，現在地方政府也缺錢；2）發達地區的地方政府已被機構反復犁了好幾遍地，深諳行業門道，口袋捂得比以前緊；3）地方政府的主要目的是為引進產業，而在和私募股權機構前些年的合作中，項目往往沒有投出去，大量資金趴在賬上，投資體驗不好；4）現在私募行業整體募資困難，大小機構都有求於地方政府資金。
8月美國三大上市資產管理機構黑石、凱雷和kkr陸續發佈了半年報。財務資料顯示三家機構業績增長頗為良好，主要受益於美股已從2018年末的階段性的低谷大幅回暖，募資規模繼續高增。不過往後看，考慮到上半年全球經濟增長已顯疲態，ipo退出和並購交易正趨於低迷，三大資管機構對私募股權行業下一階段的退出和回報率前景均表憂慮。
the macro economy and finance
overall, august economic numbers continued the downward trend of july. the small increase in infrastructure investment cannot offset the weakness in terminal demand and enterprise production. the downward pressure further gains strength on the economy.
in august, industrial value-added fell back significantly, hitting a record low growth speed in history. the main reason behind the weak industrial output is a combination of the continuously weak domestic demand and active destocking by the companies. in addition, new tariffs imposed by the us indirectly affected the industrial production. from the manufacturer’s perspective, in the short term, businesses (especially the small businesses) will still lack motivation to produce, which could create a drag on the third quarter industrial output, and further slow down the gdp growth.
investment in the manufacturing sector shrank in august after three months of recovery, causing the growth of fixed assets investment to drop compared to same period last year, although the drop was smaller than those in previous months, thanks to investments in infrastructure. considering the increasingly pronounced counter-cyclical policy support, investment in the manufacturing sector is likely to rise again. at the same time, infrastructure investment is likely to continue the upward trend. investment in the real estate sector stayed on the downward course but remained controllable.
on the domestic demand side, the effect of inventory clearance of the china 5 standard automobiles is fading. weak demand caused auto sales to decrease further and dragging down the august consumer spending growth. looking ahead, the downward trend in the job market and real estate sector will definitively dampen residents’ income and wealth growth. second half consumption growth is expected to slow.
externally, the effect of us-china trade friction became more pronounced. recessionary surplus further expanded while the exodus of processing trade was increasingly obvious. on the long term, even if cooler heads prevail in us-china talks, export will still inevitably slip in the slowing global economy.
corporate financing in august was level compared to the same period last year but an obvious increase compared to july. renminbi loans increased steadily, while the amount of off-the-books undiscounted bills posted a positive growth. direct lending, however, contributed less to the total amount of financing as it was limited by regional annual quotas and timing of issuance. overall, august private financing growth steadied again at 10.7%, level compared to the same period last year. on the other hand, mid- and long-term loans to companies grew significantly in august compared to same period last year, both in terms of size and percentage share, reflecting a long-awaited recovery fueled by strong policy support and quickened infrastructure investment. small and micro private enterprises still faced a credit barrier stubbornly against them and real economy demand was still uncertain. considering that the state council executive meeting had definitively allocated new quotas for targeted new debts for next year with a guarantee that it would be used at the beginning of the year, we estimate that part of the new 2020 regional debts will be issued before the end of this year. acting in accordance with bank credits, infrastructure investments are expected to provide powerful support in the fourth quarter to boost the economy.
as a result of the intensification of trade war expectations, the renminbi exchange rate in august fell to a level above 7, reaching a high point of 7.19. over a longer term, as us economic increasingly risk going into a recession, a second rate cut is expected in september. with the 10-year national debt interest differential at 150 basis points, the room for further rmb depreciation is limited.
on a macro level, august data indicated further pressure against economic growth. the decision makers on national council executive meeting on september 4th reiterated their plan to apply policies on specific targets and implement the “six stablizations” plan. fiscally, targeted loans will be issued at a faster pace to boost effective investments, overcome certain weaknesses, and push up domestic demand. monetarily, general and targeted required reserve ratio cuts will be used to lower financing costs of the real economy. while the governmental fiscal budget is tight, taxes and fees will still be lowered. these policies reflect both the serious situation that the real economy is facing and the determination of the government to support the economy. they are positive news for boosting confidence.
looking ahead, four pieces of news are notable. one, infrastructure investments will further boost the economy with favorable credit and policy support. although a rebound is not expected, fourth quarter would not likely see a significant slip. two, the real estate sector is resilient. although the regulatory agencies still try to suppress speculation, policy announcements since september indicate that real estate sector is still a stalwart of the economy and there is room for adjustments. three, generous credit policies continue to be effective as august mid- and long-term loans to enterprises rose both in size and percentage share, a favorable news to future recovery of the real economy. fourth, as the year closes, further escalation of us-china trade war becomes less likely, boosting capital market confidence in both countries.
lack of credit among certain real estate firms, credit crises of regional small banks, and further deterioration of us-china relationships are risk factors we focus on.
private equity investments
fund raising is in a chilling phase. renminbi fund raising is slowing in both amount and closing speed. from the point of view of an individual investor, usd fund investors are relatively mature and more receptive to blind investing. high networth renminbi investors tend to perform thorough researches on the projects. the researches are a two-edged sword in that they alleviate the pressure on the asset managers, but they make it much more difficult for asset managers to acquire assets and charge fees.
from an institutional point of view, many private enterprises face financial difficulties while the limited funds concentrate on top companies. thorough researches are demanded for investments not into the top firms. state owned companies have a much easier time, but they increasingly ask for co-gp status or even direct management by themselves. the reason behind it is a. private equity institutions have not produced good returns for investors; b. irregularities still abound in domestic capital markets and professionals are not necessarily better money managers. investors’ own teams do not fair much worse than professional money managers.
the difficulty to raise funds from local governments also increased significantly as four issues present themselves in many cases. 1. local governments’ funding rates are dropping to around 30% from 40%-50%. 2. specific requirements for use of funds are increasing. 3. no funding without project details. local governments are demanding specific projects being acquired before investing, rather than funding first. 4. governments are participating in management and even asking to be gps. even with promised funding, newly appointed official often do not honor predecessors’ promises. reneges happen frequently. the reasons are: 1. local governments are facing tight budgets after several rounds of debt issuance. 2. developed area governments have been the target of pe institutions repeatedly. they have developed an understanding of the sector and are less willing to open their pocket books. 3. local governments aim to introduce industry into the region. however during previous cooperation with pe firms, funds were not always deployed but rather sat in the bank accounts, leaving a bad taste in the investors’ mouths. 4. as the pe sector experiences difficulties, more institutions are seeking funding from governments.
in august, blackstone, carlyle, and kkr, the three giants of us listed asset managers, issued their half year reports. financial figures show a good growth picture as us equities rebounded from the low of december 2018 and fund raising managed to reach a new height. however looking further into the future, considering that the first half global economy has shown signs of slowdown and ipo and m&a transactions are becoming more difficult, all of the three firms expressed concerns as to the future of private equity exits and returns in the next phase.
